There's No Exit Plan, And It's Probably By Design

The chart above shows the trend in COVID "cases" for California since the start of the pandemic. As I noted yesterday, the authorities' response to this remarkable reversal of the disease has been extremely timid and bureaucratic, with counties moving very slowly from "tier" to "tier", each move giving very minimal relaxation: this month indoor dining at 25% capacity, masks, and social distance; next month (maybe) 50%, masks, and social distance. The most the state plan envisions for many sectors, including restaurants and churches, is under the "yellow" tier at 50% capacity, masks, and social distance.

There's no threshold in the plan for ever leaving yellow. I guess we'll just have to be grateful for the 50% they'll let us have.

By comparison, here's the same data over the same period for Texas. Although the trend in California is even more favorable than Texas, Texas is the one to say "we're done". No masks, no distance, just old-time public decorum. By contrast, at the US national level, brows are furrowing over the need for vaccine passports:

Millions of people are being vaccinated against the coronavirus every day. While that’s undoubtedly good news, this growing share of the population with COVID-19 immunity creates a conundrum for decision makers as they plan a gradual reopening of the country. On one hand, there are costs to asking vaccinated people to endure the isolation of lockdowns when they face little risk from the virus. On the other, lifting restrictions to accommodate them would put unvaccinated people in danger.

Wait a moment. This whole "conundrum" assumes a static situation where uniform lockdown controls are in place. In reality, even in the strictest places like California, people can have a beer, if only outdoors and if only with the number of seats in the bar reduced. Next month, it'll be indoors, and that's for everyone, not just the vaccinated. If the trend continues, as it almost certainly will, more and more people will be vaccinated, the statistics will keep improving, risks for everyone will be reduced (as they're reducng now), and the crisis will be effectively over long before the bureaucrats develop their passport policy and distribute said passports. I used to get in trouble as an undergraduate for asking questions like this in class.

Any attempt to "solve" a passport "problem" will just creaate a new problem and extend the existing one, which is probably what the lizard people who run the planet want.

I'm waiting to see this discussion enter the national debate, but I guess I shouldn't hold my breath. But somebody needs to start asking, for instance, why the statistics are the same for states like Texas and Florida who've said "we're done", vis-a-vis the states that are taking months and months to distinguish relaxation for tasting rooms that don't serve food vs tasting rooms that do, and whether passport holders should get better treatment in them than others.

I think things are moving way too fast for the COVID policymakers.