Michigan Takes New Lead In Cases; Narrative Continues To Collapse

One thing I'm seeing in this phase of the pandemic is that, although California continues to have unnecessary COVID restrictions, its vaccination policy has been extremely effective. It turned the troubling late 2020 case surge completely around, to the point that LA County statistics are now equivalent to those of a year ago March, at the start of the pandemic.

The changes come amid a 97% drop in the number of new coronavirus cases reported each day. The seven-day average of new cases is now slightly under 400 per day, compared to 14,200 daily new cases on Jan. 5, county public health Director Barbara Ferrer said in a news briefing.

“This is similar to daily case numbers reported one year ago at the end of March, at the very beginning of the pandemic,” she said.

This reflects a statewide policy of aggressively vaccinating the populations most likely to be infected, including those in long term care facilities, their staff, and zip codes with the lowest incomes. Although this has the politically correct name of "health equity", it simply translates into "solving the problem". California, like all other states, doesn't get all the vaccine it wants. But it uses what it gets very effectively.

Michigan, as I noted Monday, continues to be caught in a surge that's increasingly unique among US states, and with New York again declining, it's taken the national lead in new cases.

The CDC said that Michigan is leading the country in new cases of COVID-19 per population.

On Tuesday, officials reported 5,177 new COVID cases and 48 additional deaths, including 20 from a Vital Records review. On Monday, the state reported 660,771 total cases and 16,034 deaths.

Gov Whitmer has variouisly blamed it on people going to Florida for spring break, new strains of the virus, and the usual suspects, people not wearing masks or social distancing. But the evidence from a full year of pandemic has been that masks and social distancing, with over 90% compliance everywhere, did nothing to avert surges. And even Drs Fauci and Osterholm acknowlege that the vaccines are effective against new strains of the virus.

In fact, Dr Fauci of all people seems to be acknowledging that the received narrative isn't explaining the current picture:

More than a month has passed since Texas Gov. Greg Abbott shocked the Faucis of the world by scrapping COVID-inspired restrictions on businesses and individuals, including removing the mask mandate. The decisions prompted Dr. Anthony Fauci and legions of public health "experts" to warn about the devastating consequences - thousands of unnecessary deaths would result, they said - however, as the data show, practically every metric has shown that the Lone Star State's outbreak has continued to recede, even as blue states like Michigan are seeing a new surge in infections (believed to be driven by "mutant" strains).

. . . As experts have struggled to come up with a satisfying answer, Dr. Fauci was asked about the phenomenon during an interview on MSNBC Tuesday morning as the senior advisor to President Biden made the rounds. As MSNBC noted, "if you go to Texas...it looks like 2019... the restaurants are full...the ballparks are full..." and yet, cases have continued to tick downward.

Dr. Fauci seemed dumbfounded. He first suggested that the surge in cases simply hadn't manifested yet because of a "lag". That might have made sense if the trend had only been in place for a week or two. But a month has passed, and Texas' positivity rate - the share of new tests that yield positive results, seen as a more accurate representation of community spread - has continued to fall.

It's notable that these questions are now comng on legacy media outlets, not the fringe right. But it appears that Dr Fauci is already getting off the reservation:

Dr. Fauci has already rejected the CDC Director Walensky's "impending doom" rhetoric, and on Tuesday, he told CNBC that "as long as we keep vaccinating people efficiently and effectively, I don't think [a fourth wave] is gonna happen."

Well, if he could get away with shooting zingers at the US president, he can certainly get away with saying his boss at the CDC is all wrong. Dr Walensky already knew this when she did her little "I'm scared" drama routine last week -- that was her problem. But Fauci himself seems to be recognizing there are now limits. Things are changing daily, and the political establishment isn't keeping up.