California: What Next?

As of this past week, both Los Angeles and San Francisco Counties fell into the state's least restrictive "yellow" tier of COVID restrictrions. The counties currently in "yellow" are otherwise sparsely populated and rural, but LA County alone, with over 10 millon people, accounts for about 25% of the state's population. As I've noted, other counties are likely to follow LA into the "yellow" tier within weeks.

I have lots of questions. The first is that LA County's aggressive vaccination program has led the state, putting a quarter of California's population in the least restrictive tier. But it's done this with about 40% of the county's population "fully vaccinated", two weeks after their final dose. It would seem that LA County, one of the hardest-hit areas of the state, is approaching herd immunity. But received opinion, as in the New York Times, is dismissing such ideas:

“People were getting confused and thinking you’re never going to get the infections down until you reach this mystical level of herd immunity, whatever that number is,” he said.Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the Biden administration’s top adviser on Covid-19, acknowledged the shift in experts’ thinking.

“That’s why we stopped using herd immunity in the classic sense,” he added. “I’m saying: Forget that for a second. You vaccinate enough people, the infections are going to go down.”

The problem in California is that Gov Newsom's tier system never had a "green" category after "yellow". In fact, for much of the population, the change from "orange" tier to "yellow" means very little. A few days ago, my wife and I left LA County, "yellow" to spend some time in a rural part of Fresno County, "orange". Restaurant restrictions, 50% capacity with social distance, were unchanged. At least you could sit down and have a good meal, depending on what table they'd let you use, and provided they'd checked your mask and your temperature. But at what point will this stop?

The answer is we don't know. Gov Newsom is still figuring this out. He says the tier system will go away next month, but I don't think for a moment this means he'll make us like Texas and lift everything. He'll just substitute some other control and we'll keep on with masks, social distance, and so forth.

Just yesterday, the CDC changed its guidance on how COVID is spread:

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday updated its public health guidance about how COVID-19 spreads, acknowledging that the virus is airborne. It's an important change from previous guidance, which claimed the virus was spread by "close contact, not airborne transmission."

. . . "Current evidence strongly suggests transmission from contaminated surfaces does not contribute substantially to new infections," the CDC states.

Wait a moment. Does this mean the constant business of wiping down restaurant tables and chairs, church pews, barber chairs, and everything else between uses is just a big "never mind"? Just like the masks outdoors thing? Sure sounds like it.

There's a strong faction that wants to continue a new normal. The good news is that, with states like Texas and Florida showing it's possible to come all the way out of this mess, it will be harder and harder to maintain these controls.