The Morning After Phase Is Well Under Way

One of the first academic postmortems onthe COVID response indicates that masking was ineffective:

The first ecological study of mask mandates in U.S. states released by the University of Louisville finds mask mandates were not effective at slowing the spread of coronavirus (Covid-19), meaning they did not work. The results challenge the prevailing wisdom of pandemic policy that continues to dominate corporate media narrative and policy-makers.

Damian D. Guerra (Biology at University of Louisville) and Daniel J. Guerra (Biochemistry at VerEvMed, Clarkston) hypothesized that statewide mask mandates and mask use would be “associated with lower COVID-19 case growth rates” in the U.S. However, after calculating total COVID-19 case growth and mask use, the authors of the study entitled “Mask mandate and use efficacy in state-level COVID-19 containment” stated “case growth was not significantly different between mandate and non-mandate states at low or high transmission rates, and surges were equivocal.”

“Mask mandates and use are not associated with slower state-level COVID-19 spread during COVID-19 growth surges,” the study concluded. “Containment requires future research and implementation of existing efficacious strategies.”

As a lowly English major, I didn't need a degree in biology to tell me this was the case. All I needed was to google the statistics. At right is the US COVID curve as of this morning. Mask mandates were imposed in most US states in March 2020 and vigorously enforced by tbe most assiduous Karens, as well as by businesses in fear of losing their licenses if they dared to open in defiance of edicts. However, the other ingredient was that states varied in the severity of their mandates, giving the opportunity for statistical comparison on the efficacy of restrictions at different levels.

But the common-sense interpretation of the curve we see here is that no set of restrictions at any practicable level (people need to eat, after all, you can lock down only so far) stopped the late 2020 surge, even though the only measures available had been in force with extensive compliance for many months prior to the surge. The states with the strictest controls in fact had consistently worse results than states with fewer or no restrictions. In addition, by imposing the strictest lockdowns at the start of the crisis, authorities had exhausted their repertory of remedies as the pandemic progressed.

In addition, although Los Angeles County began aggressively vaccinating the most vulnerable population in mid December 2020, the curve there peaked and began a rapid descent in mid January 2021 -- but nobody could be "fully vaccinated", that is two weeks after the second shot, which had to be administered at least four weeks after the first shot -- until late January 2021 at minimum. This suggests that natural immunity played a major role in defeating the pandemic.

The normal definition of herd immunity says that it's a combination of vaccination and the natural immunity of those who've contracted the disease and recovered. Since the case mortality rate was normally 2% or less, 98% of those who contracted COVID recovered and became immune. Los Angeles County's estimate is that by spring 2021, this was about 20% of the population, but this is just among those who were tested. Those who had caught the disease but were asymptomatic would be the least likely to test, so the actual number is likely higher.

Masking and social distancing at best slowed transmission among a population at large that could benefit from the great majority who would contract the disease and become immune, often after mild or no symptoms. Instead, public health authorities spread panic and encouraged measures that were at best superstitious.

I think this is shaping up to be a public policy blunder, led by credentialed Ivy League elites, comparable to the Viet Nam war. The plebs has overwhelmingly responded to the situation with prudence, temperance, and fortitude. This doesn't exempt the authorites who perpetuated this blunder from eventual accountability.