UK COVID Data, Provincetown, And Andrerw Sullivan

A chance mention of the UK's experience with the delta surge sent me to the usual charts on the web, Indeed, the UK experienced a surge in delta-variant COVID cases in late spring, but the surge looks just like every other peak we've had since late 2020. It reaches a summit, and then it falls off steeply on the other side.

In contrast, I looked up the graph for UK deaths. As I pretty much expected, unlike the graph for cases above, there was no peak at all in deaths over the same period. This has been the pattern for every geographical area I've checked. It also lends credence to the remark by former FDA commissioiner Dr Scott Gottlieb, "I think we’re further into this Delta wave than we’re picking up . . . I think, you know, in another 2 or 3 weeks we’ll be through this. This new [masking] guidance will have a negligible impact on it.”

Other remarks by Gottlieb suggest the CDC is continuing to damage its reputation by spreading panic over the delta variant.

Former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb warned Wednesday that the latest CDC mask reversal could have a "negligible impact" on the spread of the Delta variant, telling CNBC that "we're not going to get enough bang for our buck" by instructing those who have already received the COVID-19 vaccine to continue to mask up indoors.

. . . While Gottlieb believes the recent spike in positive cases will likely dissipate in the coming weeks, he worries the CDC's guidance will have a counterproductive impact by further dissuading those already on the fence about the vaccine.

The only reference the CDC has officially released as the basis for its new masking guidance is a study of an outbreak in Provincetown, MA in early July. (Other studies are mentioned in the PowerPoint that was leaked to the Washington Post, but they aren't mentioned in the official CDC release.) There have been numerous objections to this study, including its small sample size and its unrepresentative demographics -- Provincetown is a well-known gay center. Indeed, the circumstances contradict the conventional wisdom that the delta variant is spread by Trumpist anti-vaxxers.

Andrewe Sullivan, who lives in Provincetown, summed all this up in the UK Daily Mail:

Writer Andrew Sullivan says the COVID-19 outbreak in Provincetown, Massachusetts, that infected around 900 people and triggered CDC's mask U-turn was sparked by wild July 4 indoor parties following Pride Week.

. . . Sullivan said many had just come from Pride parties in New York City and packed into bars and dance clubs.

One of the bars is like a 'dang dungeon where sweat drips from the ceiling and mold reaches up the walls,' Sullivan said.

'It might have been designed for viral transmission,' he added.

But all the friends he described in his post on The Weekly Dish experienced mild symptoms after testing positive.

Town Manager Andrew Morse confirmed that most of the 900 people connected to the Provincetown COVID outbreak had mild symptoms. Only seven were hospitalized and no one died, Morse said.

This confirms occasional observations that most people who test positive for the delta variant are asymptomatic, while those who have symptoms suffer only a mild case of the flu -- and overall, the delta variant is little different from a normal flu season. But the public health bigwigs are continuindg to muddle the issues on the Sunday talks:

Fauci, speaking on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday, said he doesn’t foresee more lockdowns in the U.S., but warned that the situation surrounding the coronavirus pandemic will continue to get worse because so many Americans are still unvaccinated. While this week the nation saw a surge in Americans getting the shot, as coronavirus cases rise driven largely by the more infectious delta variant, still only about 60% of Americans are fully vaccinated.

But wait -- isn't the big takeaway from the Provincetown study that even the vaccinated can spread the virus, and this is why the vaccinated need to wear masks? If it doesn't matter if you're vaccinated or not, why get vaccinated?