Where Is The Newsom Campaign?

A couple of data points puzzle me about the California recall election's progress. The first is that by July 29, there were two polls in quick succession that showed growing sentiment among likely voters to recall Gov Newsom. Since then -- fully two weeks later -- there's been nothing. This is a rapidly developing story, with the September 14 election little more than a month away, and nobody's releasing polls.

In fact, we received our own mail-in ballots in yesterday's mail, something the state is doing for every voter in this election. This means that voting is already under way. The top Republican candidates are actively campaigning via ads on Facebook and elsewhere. But Newsom, who has raised more than $58 million to defeat the recall, three times as much as all his opponents combined, is far less visible than Elder, Cox, and the other Republicans.

Elder in particular is able to leverage appearances on Fox News and elsewhere to get free coverage, but Newsom doesn't seem to be spending much on ads, certainly nothing like his funding would suggest. He actually ran ads last March, April, and June against the signature campaign, but when the effort qualified for the ballot, he seems to have lowered his profile.

Not long ago, he gave a photo op cleaning homeless trash from under a Berkeley freeway bridge, but this is "free" media when he could easily buy ads, and not only that, though free, it points to one of his main vulnerabilities as he belatedly tries to say I'm concerned about the homeless problem, too.

Beyond that, angry unscripted remarks caught on video by the Sacramento Bee went viral on social media.

California Gov. Gavin Newsom snapped last week while talking to reporters, ranting that everyone outside the Golden State is "b----ing" about it.

Newsom, who is facing a closer-than-anticipated recall election, spoke to the Sacramento Bee in an interview last week in which he grew angry at critics of California.

Clips from interview have since gained steam online, where they have been making the rounds on social media.

. . . "I'm a future ex-governor," the governor also said in the interview. "It could happen in a few weeks, it could happen in a few years. I love this damn state."

With viral coverage like that, not only is he not spending his own money, but he's giving aid and comfort to Larry Elder. In fact, his own defeatist messaging and his apparent inability to control his maudlin remarks make me wonder if rumors that circulated a couple months ago that he had a serious drinking problem might be true.

The second data point is that it's hard to avoid an implication in his remarks that the national Democrats -- including Californians Pelosi, Feinstein, and Harris -- are cutting him loose. On August 2, I quoted him saying,

During the interview with the editorial boards of the McClatchy Newspapers, Newsom also noted that he does not think the Democrats are considering the consequences of him possibly losing.

“I don’t think the national Democratic Party’s asking themselves that question,” Newsom told them. “If this was a successful recall, I think it would have profound consequences nationwide and go to not just politics, but to policy and policymaking.”

But just yesterday, I quoted a Democrat consultant who said the national effort would ramp up -- "soon".

"You will see a full-scale war going on in the next few weeks," said democratic strategist Steve Maviglio.

. . . With heavy pressure coming down on the governor, Democrats too are pulling out all the stops.

"I'm receiving texts from the Democratic National Committee, from progressive groups. We have members of our congressional delegation holding press conferences. You'll have national figures flying in," Maviglio said.

Er, what natiional figures? Pelosi appears to be completely wrapped up pushing the next infrastucture bill, bringing the House back two weeks early from its recess and dumping her own vulnerable members in the process. Harris can't be bothered. Feinstein is 88. I can't imagine that second-stringers with a lot of baggage like Swalwell or Maxine Waters can be much help.

And people are voting now, as we speak. Polls aren't being released, but we can be sure they're being made. The lizard people dropped Cuomo. Win or lose, they're dropping Newsom.