Did McConnell Fold?

I have a different take from nearly everyone else on the likely outcome of the debt ceiling negotiations now under way. Trump and most conserative commentators are claiming Mitch McConnell "folded" in offering thr Democrats a potentiazl way out of their debt ceiling dilemma. But as soon as I saw the offer, I thought this looked much more like a calculated maneuver. The two choices he gave were, first, to abandon the full $3.5 trillion reconciliation package in exchange for the Republicans not filibustering the debt ceiling. '

The other choice was a two-month extension of the ceiling, limited to current levels of borrowing, that would give the Democrats time to put together a deal that would allow them to extend the ceiling farther through reconciliation. This, I would think, is a version of Staff Work 101, in which the staff puts together a menu of options for the decisionmakers that steers them in the direction the staff wants them to go. Typically it's one option that's too hot, one that's too cold, and one that's just right. The object is to steer the bosses toward the option they can conclude is the just right one.

The McConnell version was just two options, one completely unacceptable (drop the whole $3.5 trillion package) and one distasteful but acceptable in light of the other, impossible option (kick the can down the road). Option two had rhe additional advantage of letting the Democrats spin it as McConnell "folding".

The only intelligent analysis of the situation I've seen is consistent with my take:

Sometimes, the best thing you can do when you don’t otherwise have much leverage (because you are in the minority) is to give your opponents options they do not want. Democrats want you to believe that the only way to raise the debt ceiling without Republicans playing along is to blow up the filibuster. That’s why they and their media allies keep spinning that narrative. That’s never been true, though, and the point of McConnell’s maneuver is to force Schumer to admit that.

In reality, Democrats can raise the debt limit via reconciliation without a single Republican vote, but they don’t want to go that route because they would be using the last bullet in the chamber on that after Biden’s “build back better” boondoggle. By offering Schumer a short-term extension, McConnell is forcing the Democrats to make a choice, and none of those choices includes blowing up the filibuster. The move also relieves pressure on Joe Manchin, who will be under immense assault if a shutdown happens, while at the same time highlighting that the Democrats could fix this themselves in short order if they wanted.

When analyzing these machinations, you have to accept that a long-term default is not going to happen. The debt ceiling will be raised eventually. The question is how it’s done and who pays the political price.

This last observation is the one Trump and everyone else is ignoring. I haven't seen a single explanation from anyone of how a debt default would be a good thing. At best, it would be a disaster well above the Afghanistan pullout on the Richter scale of such things, and while you could argue it would be awful for Biden, it would be awful for everyone else, too. It would simply be a new COVID level disruption. We don't need that, espeically now.

But let's add my incompetence model to how this games out. Remember that a key factor in incompetence is the inability to understand how the calendar works. The agreement that appears to be emerging is to extend he debt ceiling deadline by two months. Looking at the congressional calendar, after the House and Senate return on October 19, allowing for Veterans Day and Thanksgiving recesses, there are only six legislative weeks for the Democrats to complete their reconciliation package, which they now expect will include the extension on the debt ceiling.

They've had all year to come up with the $3.5 trillion package alone, which Speaker Pelosi herself acknowledged was "not ready" for the leftists to vote on by last week. Since then, Pelosi has left for Europe, so not much will get done until she returns.

But added to the inability of the Democrats to finish even the original $3.5 trillion package, it's now understood that this will need to be severely cut to meet Joe Manchin's demands. And beyond that, the objective is now also to bring the bipartisan infrastrsucture bill with the reconciliation package into a single House vote. Finishing a task like this in six weeks is a challenge even for capable people. The problem is that there aren't capable people in that talent pool. My estimate is that this will, as the last effort did, collapse into a "we'll work all weekend to get it done" fantasy.

I think McConnell has gamed this thing out pretty well.