Sen Manchin And The Leadership Vacuum

With Presidednt Biden out of the country and dozing off on the world stage, Sen Manchin picked a most peculiar time to hold a press conference. According to the Washington Examiner,

Sen. Joe Manchin hit the brakes on a newly touted social welfare spending deal, arguing it needs much more work and consideration before he throws his support behind it.

. . . He accused Democrats of playing “shell games” with the cost estimates of the latest deal, which is half of the initial $3.5 trillion Democrats hoped to spend.

. . . “How can I in good conscience vote for a bill that proposes massive expansion of social programs when vital programs like Social Security and Medicare face insolvency, and benefits can start being reduced as soon as 2026 in Medicare and 2033 in Social Security?” Manchin said. “How does that make sense? And I don't think it does.”

Manchin said he would not decide whether to vote for the bill until the text of the measure is written and, in the meantime, demanded Democrats pass the infrastructure bill, which the Senate approved with bipartisan support last summer.

My first impression is that this announcement simply bypassed both the president and the congressional leadership, and it particularly undermined the impression President Biden had been attempting to create that there is progress on the BIF-BBB deal, with votes imminent. According to Philip Klein at the National Review,

Before leaving for Rome, the White House released a framework that officials tried to present as some sort of breakthrough in ongoing Congressional negotiations. While Biden did not make the explicit claim that he had secured 51 votes in the Senate, the heavy impression was that there was more or less agreement on the broad strokes and they were just ironing out a few minor details.

. . . He went to Capitol Hill to meet with House Democrats in what was supposed to be a speech followed by a vote passing his infrastructure bill.

Instead, Biden took off to Rome and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi delayed the vote yet again. Still, Democrats gave the impression that they were just working on a few odds and ends and expected to vote Tuesday. Progressives claimed they were all in and just waiting for Manchin and Senator Kyrsten Sinema to publicly commit to the framework.

But now that Manchin has said that the framework is full of “shell games” and “budget gimmicks” to hide the true cost of the proposal, last week’s theatrics look even more absurd.

What struck me in the immediate aftermath is that the chief reaction came not from Speaker Pelosi or Leader Schumer, but from the junior Rep Jayapal, the chair of the progressive caucus.

Jayapal now says she trusts Biden to get Manchin on board on the bill as it stands now. Trusting Biden to handle Manchin is a new direction for the Congressional Progressive Caucus, notes Heather Caygle. When Biden asked them to trust him with that task last week, Jayapal and other progressives balked:

Why not just “let the president” deal with Manchin from the beginning? The obvious answer: Biden wasn’t dealing with Manchin at all, at least not effectively. Don’t forget that House progressives thought that Biden was bringing them a turnkey BBB with support from both Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema on Thursday, only to feel “bamboozled” when it turned out that Biden hadn’t bothered to nail down those votes.

. . . And this all starts with Joe Biden, whose dilettante approach to agenda implementation got badly exposed in this debacle. Biden doesn’t want to do any work, not even with Manchin, preferring to keep insisting that he’s the smartest guy in the room and everyone else needs to just recognize his brilliance.

It appears that Speaker Pelosi issued a statement only after Rep Jayapal's, and it effectively echoed Jayapal: "The House, Senate and White House continue to move forward with the Build Back Better Act." My takeaway from this episode is that for now, the two main players are Rep Jayapal and Sen Manchin, with Manchin, who's said he's happy with neither bill passing, holding the winning hand. This in turn is another indication that both Speaker Pelosi and President Biden are lame ducks.