Overtaken By Events

The suddenness of the Russian collapse and retreat around Kyiv is just another illustration of how consistently Ukraine has outperformed the conventional wisdom throughout the war. Just a few days ago, reports that the Russians were digging trenches in the Chernobyl radioactive area were taken as a sign that they were going to stay there and use it as a base to reconstitute their forces, at minimum to keep Ukraine's army tied down around Kyiv while they shifted their efforts to Donbas.

All of a sudden, the reports instead were that as of Thursday. Russian troops had left the Chernobyl facility entirely, with other reports that the soldiers who had been digging trenches were being treated for radiation sickness. Although most discussions of the developments around Kyiv characterize them conservatively as an organized strategic withdrawal by the Russians to refocus their forces, the report from the BBC below stresses that the withdrawal was forced by Ukrainian attacks and, given the disposition of burned-out Russian tanks with the troops' ordinary effects hurriedly abandoned, it was clearly sudden and unplanned. (Warning: highly disturbing content)

I was always skeptical of prognosticators, including retired generals, who were claiming that the Russians would leave a force dug in around the western Kyiv suburbs to cover their retreat and keep the Ukrainians tied down there while they shifted to Donbas. Consider that a Russian force of size s was stalled in the Kyiv suburbs and resisting Ukrainian counterattacks. If the Russians intended to reduce this force by withdrawing and redeploying r quantity of troops, the amount of troops resisting Ukrainian counterattacks would be s minus r, when s itself was barely sufficient for the job.

Any smaller number would be driven out. (I could figure this out even though they threw me out of ROTC. I'm not sure if the retired generals could do this.) It isn't even clear that the Russians actually intended to make this move, or if their announcements of strategic redeployment were simply a cover for the rout they knew was impending. The issue I see is that the consensus view up at least to yesterday was giving the Russians the benefit of the doubt when Ukraine had clearly won an actual battlefield victory in Kyiv.

Even the map below, posted early yesterday, is probably already out of date, given reports that the Russians have fully withdrawn from Chernobyl and appear to be retreating back to Belarus.

Russian forces around Kyiv are retreating en masse, leaving behind wrecked armour and possibly trapped pockets of troops as the Ukrainian army advances.

This map shows settlements confirmed recaptured today (blue) and yesterday (yellow).

The siege of Chernihiv is also lifted. pic.twitter.com/eINXgPpyJr

— Nathan Ruser (@Nrg8000) April 1, 2022

So what of the anticipated massive battle in Donbas? The Institute for the Study of War was partly right on March 31:

Russian efforts to redeploy damaged units from the Kyiv and Sumy axes to eastern Ukraine are unlikely to enable Russian forces to conduct major gains. Russia continued to withdraw elements of the 35th and 36th Combined Arms Armies and 76 Air Assault Division from their positions northwest of Kyiv into Belarus for refit and likely further redeployment to eastern Ukraine. However, these units are likely heavily damaged and demoralized.

But a few sentences down, their analysis is already out of date:

Russian forces will likely attempt to retain their current front lines around Kyiv and in northeastern Ukraine and will continue to dig in on these fronts; ISW has not seen any indicators of Russian forces fully relinquishing captured territory. However, Ukrainian counterattacks are likely disrupting Russian efforts to redeploy and refit their forces and will continue in the coming days.

This estimate, even if pessimistic about Russian prospects for a Donbas push, nevertheless appears to have conjured Russian resources around Kyiv out of thin air. The photo at right, from the Oryx site and dated April 1, appears to be a more accurate indication of the situation on the ground (Click on the image for a larger view).

Estimates I've seen, with the caveat that they come from retired generals who seem to be reappearing on the networks, are that the Russians have already deployed about 75% of the forces they have available anywhere to Ukraine, including forces in the Far East. An enormous amount of those forces in the 75% have already been chewed up, and it looks as though some number of the 25% remaining will refuse to fight. Color me skeptical about a major Donbas offensive. A few days ago, the experts at ISW thought the Russians would remain dug in around Kyiv.

The Japanese seem to have a clearer view of developments.

🇯🇵The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan will now call the Kuril Islands a part of Japan occupied by the Russian Federation, Kyodo, the Japanese media informs.

— Svidomi (@Svidomi_En) March 31, 2022

There's going to be fallout from this war well beyond Ukraine. What, for instance, will be the long-term impact of schism within Orthodoxy and its consequent loss of prestige? Does Francis Fukuyama still think history is finished? My estimate is that the shooting will be over a lot sooner than the conventional wisdom expects, I think Ukraine will have a clear advantage, and the end of the war will have widespread unanticipated consequences.