Poland Will Come Out The Winner

I don't think it's a coincidence that Poland has beccome the second-largest supplier of weapons and other aid to Ukraine, behind only the US. (Canada, however, may have moved into second in recent days.) I'm starting to think their opportunity is historic. According to Wikipedia,

The Partitions of Poland were three partitions of the Polish–Lithuanian Commonwealth that took place toward the end of the 18th century and ended the existence of the state, resulting in the elimination of sovereign Poland and Lithuania for 123 years. The partitions were conducted by the Habsburg monarchy, the Kingdom of Prussia, and the Russian Empire, which divided up the Commonwealth lands among themselves progressively in the process of territorial seizures and annexations.

The wars of the 20th century severely weakened the successor states to Prussia and Habsburg Austria, while the collapse of the Soviet Union and the likely outcome of the Russo-Ukraine war have left a vacuum into which a resuscitated Poland will inevitably expand. Note that prior to the partitions, Polish-Lithuanian territory extended well into Ukraine, and it's clear that Polish leadership is already planning for new circumstances:

"There will be almost no more borders between our countries–🇵🇱and🇺🇦,"🇵🇱President Duda said in his speech to🇵🇱ppl:

"We shall live together on this earth, building&rebuilding our common happiness and strength, which will repel any danger or possible threat" https://t.co/2tY4Q85rq9

— Euromaidan Press (@EuromaidanPress) May 5, 2022

Ukraine’s PM Denys Shmyhal confirms that Ukraine has just signed an important defense deal with Poland.

“I can’t reveal its content, but it’s an important step towards providing Ukraine with special technology and special support in the field of security and defense.”

🇵🇱🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/r35L26hziN

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) May 6, 2022

Poland has also been making its own statements of policy objectives for the resolution of the current war, including that it will not support a settlement that does not restore Ukraine's existing territorial boundaries.

It had begun to occur to me, partly from listening to the YouTube presentations of Ukraine historian Rabbi Henry Abramson, that Poland (as well as Lithuania) had historical ties to much of Ukraine prior to the Russian annexation. According to Britannica,

Direct Polish rule in Ukraine in the 1340s and for two centuries thereafter was limited to Galicia. There, changes in such areas as administration, law, and land tenure proceeded more rapidly than in Ukrainian territories under Lithuania. However, Lithuania itself was soon drawn into the orbit of Poland following the dynastic linkage of the two states in 1385/86 and the baptism of the Lithuanians into the Latin (Roman Catholic) church. The spread of Catholicism among the Lithuanians and the attendant diffusion of the Polish language, culture, and notions of political and social order among the Lithuanian nobility eroded the position of the Orthodox Ruthenians, as had happened earlier in Galicia. In 1569, by the Union of Lublin, the dynastic link between Poland and Lithuania was transformed into a constitutional union of the two states as the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. At the same time, the greater part of the Ukrainian territories was detached from Lithuania and annexed directly to Poland. This act hastened the differentiation of Ukrainians and Belarusians (the latter of whom remained within the grand duchy) and, by eliminating the political frontier between them, promoted the closer integration of Galicia and the eastern Ukrainian lands. For the next century, virtually all ethnically Ukrainian lands experienced in common the direct impact of Polish political and cultural predominance.

If nothing else, a weakened Russia means a strengthened Poland in Ukraine. For now, based on the tweet above, it also appears that there now is a more or less secret military alliance between Ukraine and Poland, irrespetive of NATO or the EU. But this will probably make Ukraine's NATO membership inevitable, especially as the course of the war is leading to Ukraine's transition from old stocks of Warsaw Pact weaponry, either its own or supplied by Poland and other countries, to NATO weaponry.

A close military alliance with Poland would also make Ukraine a de facto member no matter what. Indeed, Ukraine's experience in successfully fighting Russia will make it an extremely valuable partner. Thus a trend in which Poland becomes a major shaper of NATO policy will likely continue. I'll have more to say on Poland's likely role in a postwar division of Russian territory in a Polish-Lithuanian-Ukraine alignment as well.

I'm intrigued by another potential footnote, the issue of the Russian railroad gauge. At the start of rail construction in Russia, it purposely adopted a railroad gauge, five feet between the rails, that was incompatible with the standard European gauge of 56-1/2 inches between the rails. Thus it would be impossible for either Germany or Austria-Hungary to invade Russia directly using rail transport. This proved only a mild impediment to Germany in Operation Barbarossa, but it's been an increasing obstacle to trade, especially after former Warsaw Pact countries joined the EU.

Indeed, the peacetime break of gauge at the Russian border has been a long-standing impediment to freer trade. Technological workarounds have never been more than uneconomic halfway measures. At some point, especially with Chinese efforts to complete a rail connection to Europe north of the Himalayas with their own rail network, also of the European standard gauge, will also inevitably isolate the Russian broad guage.

Like Ukraine, the Baltic countries adopted the five-foot gauge with Russia. But after the demise of the Soviet Union, the Baltic countries have been in the process of converting to the European gauge.

A close trade agreement with Poland, as well as closer cooperation with Romania as a result of the current war, suggests the same type of conversion will inevitably take place in Ukraine, probably in combination with the postwar rebuilding of Ukraine's rail infrastruture damaged in the war.

I think this will also reinforce a historic realignment. For historical context, it's worth noting that a delayed outcome of the US Civil War was a change in the southern railroad gauge to conform to the northern standard, which effectively finalized the absorption of the south into the northern industrialized economy.