Nobody's Noticed Kaliningrad

Most of the aggregators missed yesterday's biggest story, but CNSNews had it: Russia Claims NATO Ally Lithuania Is Blockading Kaliningrad, Warns it Will Respond. Over the past week or so, I've begun to think the biggest outcome of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be in the Baltics, and Kaliningrad has become the locus. According to Wikipedia, following its capture by the Red Army ihn April 1945,

The Potsdam Agreement of 1945 placed it under Soviet administration. The city was renamed to Kaliningrad [from Königsberg] in 1946 in honor of Soviet revolutionary Mikhail Kalinin. Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, it is governed as the administrative centre of Russia's Kaliningrad Oblast, the westernmost oblast of Russia.

As a major transport hub, with sea and river ports, the city is home to the headquarters of the Baltic Fleet of the Russian Navy, and is one of the largest industrial centres in Russia. It was deemed the best city in Russia in 2012, 2013 and 2014 in Kommersant's magazine The Firm's Secret, the best city in Russia for business in 2013 according to Forbes, and was ranked fifth in the Urban Environment Quality Index published by Minstroy in 2019.

The problem is that Kaliningrad Oblast is an exclave, Russian territory outside Russian borders. Land connections between Kaliningrad and the rest of Russia must transit Lithuania. Per the CNSNews story,

A new potential flashpoint between Moscow and NATO emerged when Lithuania, citing incoming European Union sanctions on Russian steel and other ferrous metals, said those items could no longer be transported across its territory to Kaliningrad.

Russia’s foreign ministry said it summoned a senior Lithuanian diplomat and informed her Russia viewed the actions as “openly hostile.”

It said the ministry had informed charge d’affaires Virginija Umbrasiene “that if in the near future cargo transit between the Kaliningrad region and the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation through Lithuania is not restored in full, then Russia reserves the right to take actions to protect its national interests.”

. . . The governor of Kaliningrad, Anton Alikhanov, claimed earlier that the restriction would impact 40-50 percent of goods moving between the region and the rest of Russia.

. . . [O]ver the coming months more and more goods will be affected: E.U. bans on Russian imports will target wood, cement, fertilizers, seafood, and liquor from July 10; coal and other solid fossil fuels from August 10; and crude oil from December 5.

The EU disputes Russia's claim that this is a "blockade", but given the context that Kaliningrad is one of the largest industrial centers in Russia as well as a naval base, the EU sanctions on Russia will turn into a major handicap, "blockade" or not. And as of earlier this month, via an official NATO release:

Fourteen NATO allies along with two NATO partner nations, Finland and Sweden, are currently participating in the exercise Baltic Operations (BALTOPS 22) with over 45 ships, more than 75 aircraft and 7,500 personnel.

This premier maritime-focused annual exercise kicked off from Stockholm, Sweden, on 05 June. It takes place in the Baltic region from June 5-17 and provides a unique training opportunity to strengthen combined response capabilities critical to preserving freedom of navigation and security in the Baltic Sea. This is the 51st iteration of the exercise series, which began in 1972.

Let's ask a question here. Sweden applied to join NATO only this past May 15, and only three weeks later, they're hosting NATO's premier maritime-focused annual exercise? I'm sorry, things in the real world don't happen justlikethat. Pope Francis is no dummy when he speaks of "the whole drama unfolding behind this war, which was perhaps somehow either provoked or not prevented". The Baltic is a key inflection point here, and it's been part of Western strategic thinking all along. According to Reuters,

Moscow summoned EU envoy Markus Ederer to the Russian Foreign Ministry on Tuesday. EU spokesperson Peter Stano said Ederer asked the Russians at the meeting "to refrain from escalatory steps and rhetoric".

The standoff creates a new source of confrontation on the Baltic, a region already set for a security overhaul that would hem in Russia's sea power as Sweden and Finland apply to join NATO and put nearly the whole coast under alliance control.

I'm starting to think what's really going on is that the West was completely surprised by the Russian inabiity to succeed in its Ukraine invasion, and there's been a hasty recalculation -- Russia has committed and largely squandered a major part of its military force in Ukraine, and it's now vulnerable in the Baltic and likely elsewhere. Lithuania is a NATO member and in particular has closely aligned its military planning with Poland. Any Russian military threat against NATO is now simply idle.

Putin is in serious danger of losing important Russian territory and is likely unable to do much about it. This is an interesting development indeed.