Zelensky Is Driving The Agenda

As I've been saying, since late February, Ukraine President Zelensky has been setting a de facto agenda for the Western response to the invasion, and if he doesn't get what he wants right away, he gets it later. Sec Austin's remarks (translated back to English from a Ukrainian report at the link) at the start of yesterday's Ramstein conference reflect this state of affairs:

In Brussels on October 12, the next Ramstein meeting brought together defense ministers from about 50 countries to discuss assistance to Ukraine.

Opening the meeting, Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin stated that the dynamics of the war unleashed by the Kremlin had changed.

He stressed the serious progress of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this conflict, Dialog.UA reports .

. . . He stressed that the Ukrainian troops changed the dynamics of the war by seizing the initiative from the occupier.

It seems to me that Sec Austin is talking about two dynamics. Ukraine seized the initiative a few months ago, this isn't new. The dynamic that's changed is the effective Western response to Putin's threats of escalation, which has been in short, if you use nukes, you'll make our day. The implicit consequence, telegraphed by Gen Petraeus, is that this would bring, if not a coordinated NATO retaliation, an individual non-nuclear attack from at least some Western countries like the US or Poland within Ukraine's borders that would destroy Russian forces there and end the war within days.

The dynamic that changed was the recognition of Russia's incompetence at fighting a war -- if they could be fought to a standstill, denied air superiority, and beaten back by a third-rate country using largely Warsaw Pact weapons supplemented by obsolescent NATO reinforcements and drones, there can be no question about the result of a direct conventional confrontation with the US that would make nukes irrelevant. Interestingly, this was the substance of Reagan's strategy toward Moscow, essentially using precision guided weapons to bypass the nuclear threat. At some point, this was filed away and forgotten until World War III actually started in Ukraine, and Zelensky reminded the West they had it.

As I noted yesterday, in Tuesday's G7 meeting, Zelensky outlined a full-scale peace plan, the first part of which was an air shield for Ukraine. This is a further development of his February proposal for a no-fly zone, which was rejected at the time because if Western fighter jets attempted to enforce it against Russians, it would mean escalation. The dynamic that's changed after seven months is that if Western countries supply Ukraine with SAMs that Ukraine can clearly operate, Ukraine continues to act as a proxy, and there's no direct confrontation. But Zelensky effectively gets what he wants.

Every indication I have from the reddit /r Ukraine Conflict thread is that Germany, France, the UK, and the US have moved immediately to send Ukraine the SAMS it has requested. Done.

The second point of his peace plan is some type of international guarantee of Ukraine's borders, supplemented with an authority that is able to locate, prosecute, and punish war criminals in Russia. This would require nothing short of an occupation force equivalent to those that imposed peace terms on Germany and Japan in 1945, and it would have equivalent effect on world history. If it imposed partition on Germany in 1945, there would likely be an equivalent result for Russia in the wake of its defeat.

Zelensky is ahead of the game here, it's a big order, but as with his other proposals, I feel pretty sure there will be no real alternative.

The last part of his peace plan is no negotiation, or stated otherwise, unconditional surrender, the Grant-Lincoln policy in the US Civil War and the Allied policy at Casablanca. So far, the Western policy as expressed up to now by Biden and Scholz is that Zelensky and Ukraine are the only ones who can authorize any sort of land-for-peace deal, and that's likely to continue.

I think the reason is that dismantling the Putin state and the potential partition of Russia, especially including a Western-oriented carveout for European Russia, is too attractive and too attainable a prospect to give up. And Zelensky is offering to do it on the cheap. He will have had an effect on European history more profound than Napoleon and Metternich combined.

Interesting guy.