How Goes The Battle?

Well, if anyone needs to read the tea leaves, Dylan Mulvaney

just did a TikTok video that confusingly reveals he spoke with his dad and told him he was attracted to and wanted to date women, while at the same time asserting that he wanted to have babies.

But an even more intriguing data point is this one at TheStreet: Target Just Dumped Its Pride Merchandise -- Here's Where It All May Go. This is important, because Bud Light has been the corporation least able to hide the damage the boycott has done -- although its weekly sales statistics are a week or more out of date when they're realeased, they're independent and hard to hide.

Target's sales are much harder to track down, although its decline in stock price has been visible, and anecdotal reports of empty stores over the Memorial Day weekend are at least encouraging. But the link, while it's clearly been placed by Target's own press and investor relations people, is notable for its spin:

Target Corporation (TGT) has decided to remove merchandise from its upcoming LGBQT Pride collection because of objections from right wing critics. [and this is before Pride Month, by the way.]

Fortunately, retailers have lots of experience getting rid of unsold apparel, whether by selling to off-price retailers like T.J. Maxx or Marshalls, both owned by TJX Companies Inc. (TJX) or just relegating clothing to landfills, which is not really good for the environment.

In Target’s case, the retailer will most likely -- and very quietly -- donate the merchandise to charities or foundations, possibly aligned with LGBTQ+ causes.

“We don’t have anything to share on this right now,” a company spokeswoman e-mailed TheStreet.

. . . [T]he retailer hasn’t disclosed how many products it plans to pull from the Pride collection. Target also declined to say what it will do with the merchandise.

So it sounds like the tuck-friendly bathing suits and rainbow-themed toddler outfits have already bombed, and the company will need to unload them -- but don't worry, this is all in the plan. Remember, this is addressed to an audience of investors.

Unlike Adidas, Target’s financial fallout is likely miniscule (although pulling products at all 1,954 stores across the country is no small thing.) In general, the retailer likes to keep its inventories lean.

. . . Target likes to employ time-limited collections to draw people to the stores so they can buy other items. The LGBTQ+ collection only lasts during Pride month in June.

Except, er, we aren't even in June yet, and they're having to dump the June Pride Month collection early. Isn't this a little like deciding your Christmas stuff isn't going to sell, so you're gonna start dumping it in November? The piece concludes,

Target might have escaped serious financial consequences but suffered a pretty big blow to its reputation. The retailer practically wrote the book on exclusive design partnerships, most notably its collaborations with Michael Graves, Isaac Mizrahi, Kate Spade, Missoni, and Jason Wu.

Beyond that,

Target’s stock has lost a whopping $12.7 billion over the past two weeks, hitting its lowest levels in nearly three years as the “cheap chic” discount retailer continues to face backlash over LGBTQ-friendly kids clothing.

The ongoing losses are a result of an ongoing 14-day boycott that was triggered by Target’s release of “PRIDE,” an LGBTQ-friendly line that includes clothing for children and “tuck-friendly” women’s swimwear with “extra crotch coverage.”

A line which, again, is now being dumped even before its Pride Month official debut. This video from an undercover YouTuber indicates that at least the "tuck friendly" bathing suits are unofficially withdrawn and are presumably among the stock being dumped.

So far, if media spin is any indication, the official line continues to be that the impact of the boycotts is minimal, no big deal, we'll just take it all in stride. AB InBev CEO Michel Doukeris set the tone from the start:

Doukeris said it's too early to determine the economic impact of Mulvaney's post or the calls to boycott the brand, and that Bud Light's volume decline in the U.S. during April only represents 1% of the brand's global volume. He added that Bud Light is just one of many beer brands owned by Anheuser-Busch, so it likely won't impact the company's "full-year outlook," per CNN.

But at that level, a loss of 1% in total volume is non-trivial, especially if it was brought about by a highly visible, unforced error -- and in Doukeris's case, if it was compounded by his own refusal to replace a bad subordinate.

The problem for Bud Light, now Target, and likely the Dodgers, is that the Pride boycotts are affecting sales and stock price for much longer than "experts" anticipated, and they're having a less tangible effect in damaging corporate reputations. So far, corporate culture has been slow to recognize the impact, but the impact is certainly there. This is inevitably going to play itself out.