Trump Is Already Changing Things

The results of the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, having effectively decided the Republican nomination, seem to have changed political calculations within days, if not hours. The potential Senate compromise on the border is dead, not just in the House but in the Senate:

"The great Republican compromise is: ‘We’re for two-thirds of Joe Biden’s open borders, we’ll let in 6 million instead of 9 million,'” scoffed [Sen] Cruz.

“This [legislation] makes utterly no sense,” said Cruz. “There’s a reason Republican leadership is like Charlie Brown with Lucy and the football. Over and over again they run for the football and over and over again, Lucy Schumer pulls it away and Republican leadership lands on their ass.”

According to The Hill:

While some congressional Republicans had been hoping for a piece of election-year legislation aimed at fixing immigration and border security problems, Republican front-runner former President Trump is opposed, which means Senate Republicans are growing more hesitant. Trump’s push to kill the border deal to deny President Biden a legislative win is upsetting members on both sides of the aisle as negotiators hope to wrap up work on an agreement within days.

. . . Trump had been the sleeping giant in the background of talks, but his wins in Iowa and New Hampshire, coupled with his recent remarks calling for Republicans to oppose any border compromise, have complicated the path forward for the Senate.

Trump's view, as he's now in a position to weigh in as the likely nominee, has carried great influence in the House:

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said in a Friday letter to his colleagues that Senate legislation addressing the border and aid to Ukraine and other countries would have been “dead on arrival” in the House, if reports about its terms are true.

The letter follows separate signals from House leadership aides and conservatives in the House and Senate that the supplemental package has no future in the House, even if approved by the Senate.

. . . Former President Trump’s wins in the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary and his opposition to the border deal is a big part of the problem: Trump sees the package as not going far enough. He’s also said to want to use the border issue against President Biden in November.

The evidence of Trump's political strength has begun to disturb the Obama camp:

Insiders snitched that tensions between the two presidents recently exploded after irate Obama rushed to a secret meeting and confronted Biden about his fading chances to fend off surging Republican candidate Donald Trump in the upcoming November election.

"Obama read Joe the riot act," spilled a Beltway insider to the National Enquirer. "He told him to up his game or step aside for a candidate who can win the race."

. . . In desperation, sources said Obama bellowed at bumbling Biden to go on the attack — and make sure trusted aides are constantly by his side on the campaign trail to keep them from committing the disastrous gaffes that have defined his presidency.

His surrogate David Axelrod is ramping up his warnings:

On Thursday’s broadcast of NPR’s “Here and Now,” former Obama adviser David Axelrod stated that President Joe Biden does have to be “very aggressive” in addressing the “crisis” on the border and that he needs “real action steps, quickly, about how to stem the flow of immigrants. Because that is one of the symbols to people that things are out of control.”

It appears that the White House has at least been making minor adjustments in response:

National Security Council Senior Director for Transborder Issues Katie Tobin will leave the White House amid mounting criticism of the administration's border security policies.

Tobin has held the post for roughly three years and plans to return to Chicago to spend time with family, The Hill reported, citing White House foreign policy spokesman John Kirby.

"To spend more time with family" has always been code for for saying you've been fired. But this is nothing but a token move; he only meaningful change would be to fire Secretary Mayorkas. And there's no sign of a newly aggresssive stance from Joe himself; instead, Gavin Newsom is campaigning for him as a surrogate in South Carolina:

Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-CA) hit the campaign trail for President Joe Biden in South Carolina on Wednesday and Thursday, where he vouched for Biden’s mental fitness.

. . . As Politico California Bureau Chief Christopher Cadelago wrote, at an event in Allendale, South Carolina, Mayor James L. Cohen raised concerns to Newsom “about the ‘narrative’ that Biden is not mentally fit to stand for reelection.”

Cadelago later shared a video of Newsom’s answer to X. After stammering for a few seconds, Newsom vouched for Biden’s fitness for office, noting he and Biden have spent plenty of time together in recent years.

For now, though, it looks like Joe himself is checked out and not likely to take much interest in his campaign, while Trump is beginning to show savvy and initiative we didn't see in his first term.