About As Expected

One big thing I noticed from still photos of last night's speech was the continuing problem of his eyes: he's frequently squinting through a slit-eyed but otherwise expressionless mask, or, if his eyes are open, his pupils are unusually dilated. It's not a good look. The clenched fist in the lower photo is plainly rehearsed, but the pouty mouth contradicts it. Give 'em hell, Harry! He basiclly can't put together a public persona, much less a likeable one.

The big episode that stood out, apparently for most commentators, was the exchange with Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Joe Biden just confused Laken Riley, a college student killed by an illegal immigrant, with USC football coach Lincoln Riley. This just happened. The man’s brain is mush. Incredibly disrespectful. pic.twitter.com/SxYP3k174X

— Clay Travis (@ClayTravis) March 8, 2024

He then went off script and veered into incoherence:

“Laken [Lincoln] Riley, an innocent young woman who was killed by an illegal. That’s right,” Biden said. “But how many thousands of people being killed by illegals? To her parents I say, my heart goes out to you having lost children myself.”

“But look, if we change the dynamic at the border, people pay these smugglers,” he added.

Nobody can really figure out what he meant by " how many thousands of people being killed by illegals?" or how, "if we change the dynamic at the border, people pay these smugglers." The takeaway is that he can never be allowed to leave the teleprompter, but he routinely does. This is just the latest example.

And the corollary is that he can't debate. His surprise performance in the 2020 debates with Trump took place four years ago. Then, he was focused enough to recite a canned reply about Hunter's laptop: "These 51 former intelligence officers declared that it was disinformation and phony." I very much doubt he could do that now, much less even get the number right or pronounce "disinformation and phony" without slurring. This will go as it goes, but even his boosters acknowledge that any public appearance carries the risk of gaffes.

The final point for me was his remarks on Ukraine:

If anybody in this room thinks Putin will stop at Ukraine, I assure you, he will not.

But Ukraine can stop Putin if we stand with Ukraine and provide the weapons it needs to defend itself. That is all Ukraine is asking. They are not asking for American soldiers.

He then wanders into NATO, which is off the subject -- Ukraine isn't in NATO and under current conditions, it's unlikely ever to join, since there would need to be a settlement of the current conflict that would require Russian agreement, when Russia has consistently opposed Ukraine joining NATO. But Biden concludes,

I say this to Congress: we must stand up to Putin. Send me the Bipartisan National Security Bill.

History is watching.

If the United States walks away now, it will put Ukraine at risk.

Biden's own record has been delaying decisions over weapons like F16s and Abrams tanks beyond the point where they could have been effective, but as the story has developed, it appears that a big proportion of US aid has been lost through Ukrainian corruption. Reports I've cited here suggest that Secretary Blinken and the CIA have lost confidence in Ukraine's ability to achieve Zelensky's objectives, which continue to be driving Russia back to pre-2014 borders.

In that context, Victoria Nuland, the architect of current Ukraine policy, announced her retirement earlier this week, suggesting the need for serious re-evaluation -- but Biden seems oblivious. As Tucker Carlson commented,

This is crazy talk. There's no explanation of what the goal is here. There's lie after lie. Ukraine can stop Russia. No it can't. This has gone on for over two years.

Even when I supported Ukraine's fight based on optimistic projections from the retired general talking heads, I was always uncomfortable that there was no plan for an end state, just an assertion that we'd support Ukraine for "as long as it takes" to do whatever it was. This has turned out not to be viable, but even if Secretary Blinken and the CIA have lost confidence, so far, there's no attempt to recalibrate.

Apparently Biden's handlers still hope Murphy's Law doesn't apply.