Not In The Polls

The RealClearPolitics headlines are usually tepid, cautiously juxtaposing a slightly right-of-center piece with a rabid left winger under the pretense that they're somehow bipartisan, reflecting someone's wish dream of conventional wisdom. But for some reason, this morning's titles are oddly unanimous: 7 Theories for Why Biden Is Losing (And What He Should Do) by Ezra Klein at the New York Times, Alarmed Dems Run From Biden in Battleground States by Alexander Bolton at The Hill, Biden Can Save America From Trump by Dropping Out by Jeremy Mayer at USA Today, and How Lawfare Turned Trump Into a Superhero Frank Miele at RealClearPolitics.

None of them mentions the national popular-vote poll aggregate, which always tops RCP's list. Some of them mention the battleground-state aggregates, but even then with some skepticism. As Ezra Klein puts it in the lead piece,

Biden is losing to Trump. His path is narrowing. In 2020, Biden didn’t just win Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. He also won Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Now he’s behind in those states by six points, nine points and 13 points in the latest Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll.

. . . [T]o the extent polls have been wrong in recent presidential elections, they’ve been wrong because they’ve been biased toward Democrats. Trump ran stronger in 2016 and 2020 than polls predicted.

Sure, the polls could be wrong. But that could mean Trump is stronger, not weaker, than he looks.

In February, Klein had argued that Joe should drop out to save the election. He seems still to hold out for this as a last-ditch alternative if the first debate goes south:

The June debate will be his best opportunity. Doubts about age are really doubts about capability, and all Biden needs to do is persuade enough voters that he is more capable than the erratic criminal defendant across the stage, who turns 78 next month. But if the debate goes poorly, or if Biden’s numbers deteriorate further, Democrats will need to decide between a Biden-Harris ticket that is very likely to lose or an open convention.

Jeremy Mayer at USA Today is also ignoring the national aggregate and focusing on the battleground state polls:

Recent polling of Biden against Trump looks ugly.

Really? This morning's RCP national popular-vote aggregate has Trump up by a mere 0.9 point. Doesn't this feed the recent wisdom that the November election will be razor-thin? It doesn't sound like Mayer believes it.

Biden's poll numbers are awful. America, brace for a Trump victory in November.

But then he looks at the bright side. What if Joe drops out and there's an open convention, as Ezra Klein has been advocating?

If Democrats were to nominate Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, he'd beat Trump like LeBron James posting up Kevin Hart.

The obtuseness here is astonishing. According to Wikipedia, "At a young age, Shapiro started a worldwide letter-writing program, known as Children for Avi, on behalf of Russian Jewish refuseniks. He attended high school at Akiba Hebrew Academy[.]" The far-left faction of Democrats will veto even the thought of a Jewish nominee, and that goes for J B Pritzker as well. If the issue were even raised at the convention, it would be disastrous.

In fact, there would be serious problems with any move to nominate anyone but Kamala Harris -- even Cory Booker would be anti-woman -- who would fare worse in the general election than even Biden, although she might be able to avoid debating Trump if the timing of Joe's withdrawal would allow it.

But another problem is the assumption that Trump himself is a problem candidate. Mayer says,

Republicans are stuck with former President Donald Trump. Unless he dies or is incapacitated medically, he’s their nominee. He may have to win to stay out of jail.

But Frank Miele's piece has a more realistic take on Trump's current standing:

In fact, the persecution of Trump for his role as the leader of a populist political movement has so angered Republican and independent voters that instead of destroying him, his opponents have elevated him into a superhero – someone virtually impervious to the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune.

If you don’t believe me – or the polls – then watch the video of Trump’s campaign rally in Wildwood, N.J., where he drew a huge crowd three weeks into his so-called “hush money” trial.

. . . Moreover, the seeming injustice of Trump being turned into a political martyr by his opponents has resonated with the black community. Minority voters and young voters are turning to Trump in part because they see him as the victim of a rigged system, just as many of them have been. If blacks and Hispanics propel Trump to victory, that will be further proof of his superpowers.

We seem to be moving farther along stages of grief over the potential November election results, maybe at the moment someplace between denial and anger, buit certainly major pundits and major outlets are starting to say out loud that Biden is going to lose. Again, as I've been pointing out for a while, it's unprecedented for this discussion to be taking place so early in the cycle.