Thanks Be To God

One story that's been at the back of my mind since I started this blog is the Jason Bourne series of neo-noir movie thrillers, and as the details about Trump's attempted assassination have trickled out, I keep wondering how I might try to fit them into a Robert Ludlum style plot. Let me say from the start that this is pure speculation driven by an overactive literary imagination.

We have Joe, an elderly, shallow, and self-absorbed president who's been propped up by the organs of state security since his time as vice president -- and as best we can determine, his son, a dissipated drug addict, has been one of his closest advisors since that time as well.

Even while Trump was in office, the organs of state security coordinated an effort to impeach Trump on Joe's behalf; since Joe came into office, the same organs assisted the January 6 "insurrection" investigation and either conducted or assisted a series of criminal indictments and civil actions designed to thwart a Trump effort at reelection.

If I were a Robert Ludlum wannabe, I'd at least insert a strong implication that Joe's dissipated drug addict son was one of the inner circle who advised him to use this strategy -- and because it was a product of the son's mind, it backfired spectacularly, with each successive indictment and civil judgment driving Trump's polls higher in the year before the election.

Joe's inner circle, increasingly worried at this trend, devised a strategy in the spring to stop Trump's advance by taking advantage of European trips to commemorate D-Day and meet with the G7 to look presidential on the world stage. They would then capitalize on this by challenging Trump to a take-it-or-leave-it early debate on their rules with friendly moderators, which would have the effect of popping the Trump balloon and returning Joe to presidential status.

But even before the European trips, Trump's standing in the polls continued to be worrisome, and even before the debate, Joe's bizarre episodes on his European trips began seriously to undermine confidence in his cognitive abilities. The debate, instead of rescuing Joe, made Trump look all the more statesmanlike, and polls began to suggest new states were in play on the electoral map.

This prompted new efforts by Joe's advisors, among whom continued to be his dissipated drug addict son, to restore Joe's presidential prestige, which continued to backfire, leading to efforts by his former mentor, Barack Obama, to replace him on the ticket or as president with an unspecified substitute.

At this point we've reached real Robert Ludlum territory. The Hitchcock MacGuffin of the Bourne series is a CIA black operation called Treadstone, which uses brainwashed deep operatives to conduct strategic assassinations. One of these is Jason Bourne, and the action of the series involves Bourne's gradual recognition of his role in Treadstone and his attempt to recover his identity.

If I were a Robert Ludlum wannabe, I'd develop a plot whereby Joe's inner circle, influenced by his dissipated drug addict son, faced with a coup led by Obama and Pelosi, aims to reverse Joe's dilemma by assassinating Trump. At this point, Joe's strong, experienced, steady-handed leadership comes to the fore, and he calms and unifies a stunned nation, winning reelection by a landslide.

Now, to bring this off, the assassin must be someone at Treadstone level. He definitely has to be a good shot. He should have no paper trail -- he should be completely anonymous. Any possible connection to the organs of state security and Joe's dissipated drug addict son must be not just deniable but unthinkable.

This is where I can't help but have questions. We know far less at this stage about Thomas Matthew Crooks, 20, the alleged assassin who shot at Trump but killed one other in Pennsylvania yesterday evening, than we learned at the time about Lee Harvey Oswald, Sara Jane Moore, Lynette "Squeaky" Fromme, or John Hinckley Jr in equivalent circumstances. It took hours for the FBI to identify Crooks at all, and only a few outlets are willing to report even the little we know:

Crooks' father, Matthew Crooks, 53, told CNN that he was trying to figure out what happened and would wait until he spoke to law enforcement before speaking about his son. Thomas Crooks graduated in 2022 from Bethel Park High School, according to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. He received a $500 "star award" from the National Math and Science Initiative, according to the newspaper.

The problem here is that in the wake of the event, eyewitnesses were claiming that they saw Crooks climbing onto the roof with a gun, tried to notify law enforcement, but law enforcement paid no attention. So naturally, Crooks's father's first instinct is to talk everything over with law enforcement.

Now, I've worked in the crisis management-contingency planning field, and at least I know that under such circumstances, a family needs to designate a spokesperson, possibly a trusted relative or an attorney. I'm puzzled that Crooks's father seems to be so clueless -- someone instead should basically be saying as little as possible to anyone, and that definitely includes law enforcement.

The next question I have is how Crooks got to be such a good shot. He wasn't a perfect shot -- he only grazed Trump's ear -- but he was awfully good, close to Lee Harvey Oswald level. While in the US Marines,

. . . Oswald was tested for marksmanship with his rifle on five different exercises—from 200, 300 and 500 yards firing slowly and from 200 and 300 yards firing rapidly. Based on these results a Marine would be rated by a defined scoring system. . . . in both tests that most closely matched the conditions in the Kennedy assassination for rapid fire shooting Oswald scored above an expert level. Additionally on his third test from 500 yards firing slowly, Oswald scored 46 out of a possible 50: again shooting above an expert level.

Crooks's rooftop was 148 yards from Trump. In contrast, Sara Jane Moore and Lynette "Squeaky" Fromme were unable to handle a firearm competently; their attempts to shoot Gerald Ford both failed. John Hinckley Jr shot Reagan with a handgun at close range. Crooks was far more capable with a firearm than any of the other failed assassins.

Although Crooks appears to have been a reclusive who lived with his mother, he had to have received fairly advanced firearms training somewhere. In addition, he lived some 40 miles away from the rally site -- he must have done some detailed planning, or have had planning done for him, to identify the layout of the scene and find an advantageous rooftop. What we know about Crooks doesn't fit with what he appears to have been able almost to bring off.

And then we have the problem of the Secret Service:

Steve Nottingham, a former SWAT commander in Long Beach, California, called Saturday’s shooting “a fundamental security failure.”

He has worked security details for visiting world leaders, including presidents, and now trains officers on how to respond to critical incidents. He pointed at likely breakdowns in the pre-event scouting and real-time monitoring of places a gunman could shoot from.

But one thing definitely worked -- at least, if I were a Robert Ludlum wannabe. Just an instant after Crooks got off his rounds, the Secret Service snipers knew exactly where to shoot, and they blew his head off. Crooks had no ID and had to be identified with DNA. Gee, if they'd caught him climbing onto the roof before he shot, they'd have been able to interrogate him, huh? Well, the crack Secret Service snipers neutralized him instead, just seconds after he shot.

They were all high fivin' each other, from what I read. I think we have a lot to learn. But I'm just a Robert Ludlum wannabe.