We're Still In 1972

I keep saying that the closest historical parallel we have to this year's presidential campaign is 1972, when the Democrats were forced to swap out their vice presidential candidate only weeks after he'd been nominated. But even before that, another parallel is that year's Democrat convention, which is one of the few in modern history, either Democrat or Republican, that didn't produce a bounce in the polls, however brief it may have been.

This site lists the respectrive poll bounces for each party following its nominating convention for each presidential election since 1964. The bounce for McGovern in 1972 was 0; the bounce for Nixon that year was 7.

In fact, the Democrat bounce was bigger in other years that still turned out badly for them -- in 1980, Jimmy Carter got 10; in 1984, Walter Mondale got 9; in 1988, Michael Dukakis got 7. The only bounces that were worse for either party was John Kerry's -1 in 2004 and Mitt Romney's -1 in 2012.

Wednesday's inept scheduling was reminiscent of 1972's speech delays as well:

UPDATE 10:48 p.m. ET:

Oprah is done now, and Democrats wasted more time with a Walz propaganda video–and now Maryland Gov. Wes Moore is speaking to waste more time. Zero chance Walz makes it to the stage in primetime tonight.

UPDATE 11:00 p.m. ET:

Now Pete Buttigieg is speaking, and Democrats have officially screwed up their convention for the third straight night by talking too long with meaningless programming that pushed their vice presidential candidate now past primetime. How embarrassing.

UPDATE 11:05 p.m. ET:

Buttigieg is done now, and then the Democrats played another messaging video. And now on stage is John Legend doing some kind of performance. We’re still awaiting Tim Walz, and it’s getting far later than when Biden took the stage on Monday and when Obama took the stage on Tuesday. The DNC is officially a disorganized mess.

Walz finally took the stage at 11:22. What's intriguing is that commentary after Biden's speech Monday night was unanimous in saying it had been deliberately delayed past prime time to take attention away from Biden, who was yesterday's news. But why deflect attention from Walz? There are only two explanations, one that it was incompetence, bad enough, the other that it was deliberate, which is even worse, a tacit acknowledgement that Walz was a bad choice.

While nobody has put out any preliminary polling bounce for this year's Democrat convention, the disorganization behind it, which is also credited for the 1972 speeches runnibng hours behind schedule, has already been heavily reported:

The Democratic National Convention — off to a smooth start by all outward metrics — has also featured logistical headaches, like long lines, bad internet connections, expensive price tags, and limited access to the floor, leaving many of the 15,000 credentialed media grumbling, and their representatives openly battling convention organizers.

. . . Journalists, including those from Semafor, waited hours to get to the convention hall. When they arrived, they found what Slate’s communications director, Katie Rayford, described as a “wildly disorganized” scene.

TV network executives also told Semafor that the event was more expensive. Broadcast suites inside the United Center were nearly double the cost and much smaller than those offered a month earlier at the RNC.

This is the current situation trying to get into the Democratic National Convention perimeter. This is supposed to be a media entrance and hundreds of delegates got dropped off here and are trying to get in. So wildly disorganized @DNC pic.twitter.com/rD2NYm9Mfr

— Katie Rayford (@katie_rayford) August 19, 2024

Public interest in the convention is also down:

The television ratings of the first night of the Democratic National Convention (DNC) sunk 22 percent from 2016, according to Nielsen.

The ratings crash suggests that Vice President Kamala Harris is far less popular than the media purported [sic].

The continued scheduling delays, along with the other administrative snafus, suggest that the Democrats' heart isn't in this year's campaign, and even Barack Obama and Bill Clinton just went through the motions. Heck, despite his ADHD arm waving, even Tim Walz is just going through the motions.

What is it with Communist Slob Timothy Walz and the wild gesticulations? Freak! pic.twitter.com/juklqeJZee

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) August 22, 2024