Trump's Achievement

Thers's been little commentary anywhere on Trump's remarkable victories in both the House and Senate over the past week, culminating in Schumer's abject reversal on the continuing resolution, with nine Democrats and an Independent voting in favor of cloture and one Democrat and one Independent even voting in favor of the underlying CR. But Real Clear Politics had nothing on the story this morning, notwithstanding Schumer's reversal on the bill and cloture took place Thursday, which made the eventual outcome clear.

RCP's lead story, unbelievably, was Byron York on A reminder that Kamala Harris was a terrible candidate from two days earlier. And I noted yesterday that Politico had characterized the White House strategy for the CR as "over-confidence bordering on arrogance". Nobody saw this coming, and it looks as though almost nobody, despite two days notice, had begun to draft any sort of reaction. It isn't just legacy media that's lazy and complacent.

Exactly what did Trump accomplish?

Tensions between prominent Democrat leaders grew Friday, as former Speaker Nancy Pelosi rebuked Senate Leader Chuck Schumer for caving on the Republican continuing resolution (CR). At the same time, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries refused to comment on his future as a leader.

The striking remarks by Pelosi (D-CA) and the lack of response by Jeffries (D-NY) speak volumes about how disappointed they are with Schumer's actions. They also indicate that, like Schumer (D-NY) initially, they are strongly advocating for a government shutdown.

"America has experienced a Trump shutdown before — but this damaging legislation only makes matters worse. Democrats must not buy into this false choice. We must fight back for a better way. Listen to the women, For The People," Pelosi said in a statement.

The presumption is that, by contrast, Schumer did "buy into this false choice." It's also a shot at Schumer, implying that women in Congress are the true leaders on this matter.

Look at the difference between now and the last confrontation over a government shutdown in 2018-19:

The shutdown stemmed from an impasse over Trump's demand for $5.7 billion in federal funds for a U.S.–Mexico border wall. In December 2018, the Senate unanimously passed an appropriations bill without wall funding, and the bill appeared likely to be approved by the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and Trump. After Trump faced heavy criticism from some right-wing media outlets and pundits for appearing to back down on his campaign promise to "build the wall", he announced that he would not sign any appropriations bill that did not fund its construction. As a result, the House passed a stopgap bill with funding for the wall, but it was blocked in the Senate by the threat of a Democratic filibuster.

This led to an Oval Office meeting with Pelosi and Schumer on December 11:

For 17 awkward and tense minutes in the Oval Office on Tuesday, President Donald Trump and his Democratic adversaries — Pelosi, the expected incoming House speaker, and Chuck Schumer, the Senate minority leader — clashed in spectacular fashion, with the cameras rolling and shocked reporters watching. White House aides who had given Trump concise talking points were equally blindsided.

In the end, Trump handed Democrats what they consider a massive gift: a direct and unqualified admission — on live TV, no less — that he will be responsible for a government shutdown.

. . . The confrontation spoke volumes about the new power dynamics in Washington that come with the arrival of a House Democratic majority in January.

All three leaders — Trump, Pelosi and Schumer — looked uncomfortable at times during the exchange. Schumer and Pelosi frequently looked straight ahead, not making eye contact with the president as they disputed him. Vice President Mike Pence didn’t speak at all.

. . . Responding to Pelosi’s calls to end the open-press portion of the meeting, Trump hit back with a thinly veiled swipe at the leadership tumult within her caucus.

“I also know that Nancy is in a situation where it’s not easy for her to talk right now, and I understand that,” Trump said.

That set off Pelosi.

“Mr. President, please don’t characterize the strength that I bring to this meeting as the leader of the House Democrats, who just won a big victory,” she said.

In his 2025 comeback, Trump has completely reversed the dynamic of the 2018 Oval Office meeting, dividing the Pelosi-Schumer united front and throwing Schumer's leadership position into question -- and although Pelosi is officially retired from leadership, the 2025 outcome is a blow to her remaining prestige. And in the 2025 confrontation, Schumer implicitly acknowledged that the Democrats would be responsible for a shutdown.

It's hard to avoid thinking that in his time out of office, Trump rethought this confrontation and recognized that a key resource was available to him in 2018 that he didn't use. As the Wikipedia link above puts it,

The Antideficiency Act prohibits federal departments or agencies from conducting non-essential operations without appropriations legislation in place. As a result, nine executive departments with around 800,000 employees had to shut down partially or in full, affecting about one-fourth of government activities and causing employees to be furloughed or required to work without being paid.

But the president is the one who determines what government operations are non-essential. Thus Trump had precisely the same resource available to him in 2018 as he had in 2025 -- if Schumer and Pelosi shut down the government then, the potential outcome could have been precisely what Trump threatened in 2025. You want to shut down the government? Go ahead, make my day!

Faced with a similar tactical situation, Trump appears to have had the opportunity to re-think the strengths and weaknesses of both sides and played the game with a completely different outcome -- and likely ended the careers of both Schumer and Pelosi.