In Other News, Tim Walz's Career Is Over

The New York Times and other sources are reporting:

Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) is reportedly going to announce on Monday that he will drop his bid for reelection to a third term, according to a report from the New York Times. Sen. Amy Klobuchar is now considering running instead.

“Mr. Walz and Ms. Klobuchar met Sunday in Minnesota, where he informed her of his plans and she confirmed her interest in running to replace him,” the paper reported. “For Mr. Walz, the Democratic nominee for vice president in the 2024 election, the departure caps a brief rise in national politics.”

Both the Washington Post and The Wall Street Journal had begun to sense blood in the water after the new year. Per the WSJ:

The massive welfare-fraud scandal in Minnesota dogging Gov. Tim Walz as he seeks re-election in a state that has prided itself on good governance is giving Republicans a potent line of attack against a critic of President Trump.

The unsuccessful 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee is still favored by nonpartisan analysts to win in November. But the large-scale theft—still being tabulated and growing—is a major distraction for Democrats as outrage and embarrassment swell in Minnesota and beyond.

From the Post:

Democrats are favored to win the governor’s race in 2026; Republicans have not won a statewide election in Minnesota since 2006. Walz won reelection by about 8 percentage points in 2022, when some of the fraud cases had already surfaced, and it’s not clear that the new attention to the issue has affected his approval in the state. There are no clear recent shifts in available surveys.

Notice how, even as of Saturday, the conventional wisdom at the Post still favored Walz's survival. For undertstandable reasons, the Post appears to have discounted Nick Shirley's impact on the race. But at the first link above, Matt Margolis has it right:

Scrutiny of Walz intensified after independent journalist Nick Shirley and his crew hit the streets, sniffing out over $110 million in fraud in a single day. They targeted outfits posing as child care spots, autism hubs, and welfare fronts—all sucking up government cash. For example, the Quality Learning Center in Minneapolis, licensed for 99 kids, pulled in $1.9 million this year alone. Shirley showed up and found an empty building. Zero kids. Oh, and the sign? Spells "learning" wrong.

It’s been clear for some time now that this story was threatening Walz’s political future. In addition to seeking a third term as governor, he was also considering a presidential bid in 2028. Now it looks like his career is over, and he’s going to have to start lawyering up.

I ENDED TIM WALZ

— Nick shirley (@nickshirleyy) January 5, 2026

It's worth noting that Trump has been on the right side of the issue all along. Here's a story from last Thanksgiving at Politico:

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) pushed back Sunday on President Donald Trump’s claim that Somali refugees are “completely taking over” Minnesota after Trump drew widespread criticism for his attacks on Walz.

Walz said in a Sunday morning interview with NBC’s Kristen Welker on “Meet the Press” that being insulted by Trump was “a badge of honor” after he became the subject of a Thanksgiving eve social media post in which the president cited “the refugee burden” as “the leading cause of social dysfunction in America.”

“As an example, hundreds of thousands of refugees from Somalia are completely taking over the once great State of Minnesota,” Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform. “Somalian gangs are roving the streets looking for ‘prey’ as our wonderful people stay locked in their apartments and houses hoping against hope that they will be left alone.”

He added: “The seriously retarded Governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, does nothing, either through fear, incompetence, or both,” while also taking swings at progressive Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.), criticizing her Muslim faith and speculating falsely that she may have entered the country illegally.

What Nick Shirley did was simply instantiate Trump's ongoing criticisms of Walz. The swipe at Walz for being "serioously retarded" raised the hackles of respectable opinion, but it had the strong subliminal effect that Trump's off-the-cuff blows often have, dating back to "low-energy Jeb" -- and Walz, never the sharpest tool in the shed, drew attention to it himself:

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz says it is “shameful” that motorists are shouting the “R-word” driving by his home — and that he is “deeply concerned” the hate allegedly started by President Trump could “turn to violence.”

Walz, speaking to reporters Thursday about the state budget, revealed in an aside that drivers have been repeating Trump’s claims that the Democratic governor is “seriously retarded” for letting tens of thousands of Somali immigrants take over his “once great state.”

“This creates danger,” Walz said. “And I’ll tell you what. In my time on this, I’d never seen this before: People driving by my house and using the R-word in front of people.

The image is too delicious. The problem is that Walz was vying for the position of Trump's lead opponent, when he simply wasn't a serious candidate. At this point, with Walz taken out of the running as low-hanging fruit, scrutiny will turn to Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom, who are in positions just as shaky -- while Trump and the Republicans still have Somalis as a front-burner issue.

The Wall Street Journal called Walz's witghdrawal "a remarkable political fall for a politician who had ascended to the national stage in 2024 as the Democratic vice-presidential nominee". It was no such thing. It was the inevitable outcome of Kamala Harris's choice of what some have characterized as the only candidate who was dumber than she is as a running mate.

It's a major mistake to underestimate Trump. Let's keep in mind that he took out Walz as a spare-time project, while he was working on at least half a dozen serious matters.

UPDATE: The idea is now being floated that Klobuchar, if she wins the governor's race, could appoint Walz as her successor in the Senate for the remainder of her term. However, this assumes Walz escapes legal accountability for Somali corruption, as well as the campaign issue it would create for opponents in either the primary or general election for her gubernatorial aspiration. Walz at this point is going to be poison for anyone who touches him.