What's The Current State Of Play In Iran?

There really hasn't been much insightful commentary on the current state of play in Iran, at least in the US, since Vice President Vance walked out of the negotiations a week ago. On the other hand, some foreign observers seem to have a better handle on what's really going on, in particular the US-born Israeli commentator Pesach Wolicki. He talks like the Northeastern suburban Jews I grew up with, whch may be one reason I like him, but his discussion also reflects the respect the Israelis have for his negotiation skills, which US observers generally lack. At about 7:15 in the video embedded above [it may have since been made private], he begins:

I'll remind you that a week into the war, we saw this: "Trump demands 'unconditional surrender' from Iran", OK? and he put out a Truh Social post, "There will be no deal with Iran except unconditional surrender. After that, and tbe selection of an acceptable leader, we'll make wonderful and brave allies that will make Iran great again." OK, but he said there's no acceptable outcome to the war, there's no acceptable end to the war other than unconditional surrender. OK, Iranians are . . . begging for a ceasefire. Ttrump says, if you open up the straits, we'll have a ceasefire.

Now, think about unconditional surrender. What does unconditional surrender look like? It doesn't mean you kill every last member of the IRGC, end the siege, and there's no more regime. What is unconditional surrender, what was it in Germany, whar was it in Japan? It means that one side says "uncle", capitulates, and surrenders to all of the demands of the other side. Obviously that happens in a negotiating room where they surrender. There's a meeting, and they surrender, right, and the guns go silent.

And that's what Trump was trying to accomplish. He was saying, "OK, we're pummelng you, you closed the Straits of Hormuz, open up the Straits, and come talk to us", and he wanted to get an unconditional surrender. So they all get into the room, and what does Trump say about those negotiations, just to hammer home this point? . . . Well, this is actually right after the negotiations fell apart. . . we all know what happened, the Americans laid out their demands. . . everyone went home, because the Iranians weren't willing to agree to the American demands.

What did Trump then say? Listen to this. [Trump recording] "Think of it. They're allowed to say, 'Death to America! Death to this, death to -- I just make one statement, they say, 'Oh, such a big deal!' Let me tell you, that statement got them to the bargaining table, and they haven't left. They haven't left the bargaining table. I predict they come back, and they give us everything we want. And I told my people. I want everyhing. I don't want 90$, I don't want 95%, I told them: I want everything. . ."

. . . So let's underatand what just happened here. Trump saw the ceasefire as an opportunity to put the guns down, bring them to the table, and have them surrender. . . unconditional surrender. . . . This isn't really a negotiation. It's for the Iranians to capitulate and agree to the American demands.

Wolicki makes a pointed reference to "unconditional surrender" as it applied to Germany and Japan. Let's recognize that after the German military surrender on May 7/8, the Allies found it convenient to leave the Flensburg Nazi government under Admiral Dönitz in place for several weeks, simply because some sort of civil authority was needed to clean up all the loose ends prior to a complete Allied takeover. In particular, the police powers of the Dönitz government could be used to help round up war criminals. Once that government had served its purpose, Dönitz himself and those around him were arrested.

In Japan, negotiations were conducted via Switzerland and Sweden to determine just what conditions would constitute "unconditional" surrender, in particular, whether the Emperor could retain some sort of constitutional position. However, even when a satisfactory resolution for the Emperor was secured, there was a last-minute attempted coup that failed only when the insurgents were unable to locate and seize the pre-recorded copies of the Emperor's surrender announcement scheduled for broadcast.

In other words, "unconditional surrender" is something for which the conditions are negotiated, and it takes place within a more extended window of time following the practical military defeat. As best anyone can determine, what's going on in Iran now is similar to the uncertainties in Japan even after Hirohito broke the tie in his war cabinet in favor of surrender. This is outlined in he video embedded below:

It begins,

Massive crowds have taken to the street in Tehran. But these aren't protesters against the regime. These are regime supporters. Now they're losing their minds, because they can't believe that Iran just surrendered. That's why they're protesting against the people in power, people who are negotiating with the United States, and they're calling on the Supreme Leader to finally make a statement. It's been more than a month since the Supreme Leader has been elected, and the Iranian public still hasn't heard from him or seen him. And now it seems like the regime has fallen into a full-on civil war.

Apparently in response, those surrounding the Supreme Leader issued a written statement:

In a statement carried by Iranian state media, he said the military had resisted what he described as America’s “sinister schemes.”

He went on: "With its strong divine and popular support and in dense, fortified ranks, it [the army] stands shoulder to shoulder with other mujahideen of the armed forces against the two armies at the forefront of the front of kufr (disbelief) and arrogance, clashing with them hand-to-hand and exposing their weakness and humiliation to the eyes of the world; just as its drones strike like lightning against the American and Zionist criminals, its brave navy is ready to make the enemies taste the bitterness of new defeats."

The final sentence, boasting about how the Iranian navy is ready to unleash "new defeats", comes after Iran this morning said it was closing the Strait of Hormuz again.

However, the remarks are entirely pro forma, and they aren't accompanied by any proof that he's alive or not comatose. All they establish is that the hard-liners are able to issue statements on his behalf, while they're apparently also in a position to force Mohammad-Bagher Qalibaf to confirm that the IRGC has closed the Strait of Hormuz again. In return, Trump reiterated

If negotiations with Iran fail and Trump gives the green light, the U.S. military in the U.S. Central Command region is prepared to conduct strikes against the regime’s military targets, a source familiar with the matter, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal military planning, told The Hill on Saturday morning.

It's hard to avoid thinking we're in a situation comparable to Japan in the unstable period after the nuclear bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaski.