The UK Makerfield Election

The UK held an unscheduled election in the district of Makerfield, part of greater Manchester, on Thursday:

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Friday he would not walk away, vowing ​to fight any challenge from his leading party rival Andy Burnham and potentially ushering in a new bout of political instability.

Burnham, the Greater Manchester mayor, won ‌a decisive victory for Labour to claim a parliamentary seat in northwest England, and has signalled that he will use it to enter any contest to replace Starmer.

However, except for the race being a focus of Labour's effort to replace its own leader, Starmer, this would be a dog-bites-man story; Makerfield has been a safe Labour seat for over 100 years. However, Nigel Farage seems to have had a vain hope to win the seat for Reform in an upset:

Nigel Farage says he is disappointed with Reform UK's performance in the Makerfield by-election, as he blamed his party's defeat on a desire among voters to eject Sir Keir Starmer from Downing Street.

The Reform leader claimed frustration with the embattled prime minister had driven Andy Burnham's "emphatic" Labour victory over his party's candidate, Rob Kenyon, who finished more than 9,000 votes behind.

He also conceded his party had also lost votes to right-wing rival Restore Britain, founded by ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe, which finished third in a breakthrough night for the fledgling party.

Restore Britain is a very new factor in the UK political scene:

Restore Britain is a right-wing to far-right political party in the United Kingdom led by Rupert Lowe, the Member of Parliament for Great Yarmouth. The organisation was officially launched as a pressure group on 30 June 2025 and as a political party on 13 February 2026. It presents itself as an umbrella organisation for local grassroots groups and has been labelled as more right-wing than Reform UK on the political spectrum.

Lowe was elected to Parliament for Reform but formally left the party after public disputes with its leadership and criticism of Nigel Farage. Reform subsequently alleged threatening behaviour from Lowe as a reason for his suspension, which Lowe and his staff denied. Later in 2025, he established Restore as a pressure group, with an initial advisory board that included Conservative politicians such as Susan Hall and Gavin Williamson. The party also raised funds via crowdfunding for an inquiry into the grooming gangs scandal.

Farage also blames Reform UK's alleged underperformance in the Makerfield election on the emergence of Restore Britain. At the second link above,

He issued a plea for Restore voters to back Reform instead, as the main "challenger party to the left".

Reform had sought to defeat Burnham in the Makerfield seat, giving it a high-profile scalp to boost its credentials as the likely main opposition party to Labour at the next general election.

But Burnham increased Labour's majority over Reform in the constituency, in a rare feat for a candidate from the governing party.

One problem for Reform UK has been that several high-profile Conservative MPs have left the increasinigly discredited Conservative Party for Reform UK, casting doubt on Reform's commitment to solve the migration crisis:

The latest high-profile member of the struggling main opposition Conservative Party to jump ship on Monday, January 26 announced she was defecting to the anti-immigrant Reform UK party. Former home secretary Suella Braverman became the third senior Conservative Party figure in less than a month to join Reform, led by Brexit figurehead Nigel Farage.

. . . Former immigration minister Robert Jenrick announced his defection on January 15, days after former chancellor Nadhim Zahawi, who is no longer a lawmaker, also announced that he would join Reform. Braverman's defection brings the number of Reform UK members of Parliament to eight.

Ex-Conservative prime minister Rishi Sunak sacked Braverman as home secretary in November 2023 after she accused police of left-wing bias and said homelessness was a "lifestyle choice." After her dismissal, the outspoken lawmaker publicly condemned Sunak for "equivocation, disregard and a lack of interest" over several policies, including cutting immigration.

Last year saw the second-highest annual number of migrants arrive on UK shores in small boats across from France since records began in 2018. A total of 41,472 migrants landed on England's southern coast in 2025 after making the perilous Channel crossing from northern France.

Reform – founded in 2021 from the ashes of Farage's Brexit Party – won the most seats at last year's local elections in England. That has prompted predictions it could seize power from the ruling center-left Labour at the next general election, due by August 2029. The party is also hoping to make major gains in local elections slated for May.

However, Reform UK appears to have underperformed in Makerfield at 34.5%, while Labour, winning at 54.8%, increased its majority from 43% in 2024. Restore Britain, a party only since this past February, came in at 6.8%. The other parties all lost vote shares over 2024. Although Farage complained that Restore Britain took votes from Reform UK, the two together would have been 41.3% still a landslide defeat. One problem for Reform UK is Robert Jenrick, whose defection from (or ouster by) the Conservatives could lead to the impression that he's an opportunist who will betray prcinciples on key issues.

While he's vociferously supported mass deportations since joining Reform UK, while he was Immigration Minister in the Sunak Tory government, net migration reached record highs. While Reform UK had hoped even to pull an upset in Makerfield, it underperformed. This view in the UK Indepedent may explain why:

The biggest issue for Reform is that it has always depended on the personality and political skills of its leader, Mr Farage, and offered almost nothing in terms of substance, policy or political philosophy.

It is probably not a complete coincidence that their only serious economic policy for most of the past year has been to liberalise cryptocurrency.

. . . Like Reform itself, crypto is based more on vibes without any obvious substantial value. It has an empty quality to it that is just waiting to be found out when the bottom drops out of the market.

. . . And this makes them particularly vulnerable to an aspect of British politics which has been underpriced – tactical voting in the first past the post system.

.. . Some 77 per cent of Labour voters would tactically vote Lib Dem or Green to prevent Reform UK winning. And if only the Conservatives or Reform UK stood a chance of winning in their seat, voters would favour the Tories by 31 per cent to 24 per cent.

It means Reform could still be the biggest party in vote share, but only win a handful of seats.

. . . Meanwhile, Reform has clearly been spooked by Rupert Lowe’s Restore Britain on its right flank.

While Restore did not win anywhere near enough votes to make the difference in Makerfield, its presence has pushed Reform from a trajectory of being more centre-ground back to a core vote strategy based on extreme rhetoric against migrants.

In other words, Reform UK can stand for nothing much and lose, or it could be more hard core like Restore Britain and also lose. Someone is going to have to solve this puzzle.