Another Crack At The Numbers

The video above doesn't look like it was produced by the Ukrainian government. It may or may not have been released with their approval. I find it particularly interesting, though, because it was taken by two women driving in a civilian car along the length of what must have been a Russian battalion tactical group some days afer it had been attacked by the Ukrainians. Around the third time I watched it, I realized that between the occasional remaining burned-out trucks, there are large patches of bare roadway without snow.

This says to me that there had been no snow on the ground before the battle, but it did snow soon afterward. Over a day or two following the battle, the Ukrainians were able to drive or tow away most of the Russian armored equipment, which explains the rectangular bare snowless patches in the road where the tanks and so forth had been. That's a lot of tanks. And if, unlike in some videos, there weren't a bunch of burned-out tanks, trucks, and personnel carriers left over, this suggests strongly that they're now part of the Ukrainian army.

Given the apparent size of the column that the women are driving past, my guess is that this was a battalion tactical group, which as I noted in Wednesday's post includes roughly 10 tanks and 40 infantry fighting vehicles. How can we relate this to the overall size of the Russian invasion force? The Ukrainian general staff has this estimate:

Approximately 200,000 Russian occupiers invaded Ukraine. 15,000 were killed and another 18,000-20,000 became already incapacitated.

In total, there are about 60 tactical groups operating in Ukraine now and 10 of them are in reserve.

As I've noted, estimates of the Russian BTGs in Ukraine range from 30 to 130. but 60 here is in the middle. 60 BTGs times 10 tanks per BTG is 600 tanks. The Oryx site tally, which lists only losses that can be confirmed by photos, says that as of this morning, the Russians have lost 244 tanks, of which 93 are destroyed, 4 are damaged, 41 are abandoned, and 106 are captured and presumably being refurbished for the Ukrainian army. This is a third of their combat power in tanks.

The Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovich quoted at the link says, "In 10-14 days they will be forced to defend themselves".

After that will begin tactical battles for small villages and for leveling positions. At the same time, the Russian military has no reinforcements.

"Even if all the reserves are involved, they will not be able to fundamentally change the situation. Russia's loss may become real in two or three weeks."

A piece at Hot Air, which quotes the New York Times behind a paywall, says

It [Russian, casualties] is a staggering number amassed in just three weeks of fighting, American officials say, with implications for the combat effectiveness of Russian units, including soldiers in tank formations. Pentagon officials say a 10 percent casualty rate, including dead and wounded, for a single unit renders it unable to carry out combat-related tasks.

With more than 150,000 Russian troops now involved in the war in Ukraine, Russian casualties, when including the estimated 14,000 to 21,000 injured, are near that level. And the Russian military has also lost at least three generals in the fight, according to Ukrainian, NATO and Russian officials.

However, the 150,000 number for Russian troops in the invasion force includes troops at all levels in all jobs. If we estimate 700 infantry in each BTG, 700 times 60 BTGs in the invasion makes 42,000 infantry total, and these will be the groups that primarily take casualties. The current conservative US estimate of Russian casualties is 7000 dead, wich makes about 17% of their combat forces, well over the 10 percent threshold cited in the link.

On the other hand, here is the current Ukrainian estimate of Russian losses:

The relevant statement was made by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Facebook, an Ukrinform correspondent reports.

“Between February 24, 2022 and March 18, 2022, the enemy’s total combat losses were as follows: 14,200 troops, 450 tanks, 1,448 armored fighting vehicles, 205 artillery systems, 72 multiple launch rocket systems,” the report states.

In addition, the Ukrainian military destroyed Russia’s 43 anti-aircraft warfare systems, 93 aircrafts, 112 helicopters, 879 motor vehicles, three boats/cutters, 60 fuel tanks, 12 unmanned aerial vehicles and 11 special equipment units.

It's worth noting again that the Oryx site tallies only losses that can be confirmed by photos of individual items. Oryx notes this and says, "the amount of equipment destroyed is significantly higher than recorded here," so there is no reason specifically to doubt the Ukrainian general staff estimates -- but if the general staff says Russia has lost 450 tanks, this is in fact more than two thirds of the tanks in the original invasion force of 60 BTGs by their estimate.

Indeed, I've got to say that just judging from the video drive-bys of burned-out columns on YouTube, this estimate seems entirely reasonable, and based on that, the other numbers in the Ukrainian estimate seem in line as well.

I'm wondering if Russian collapse may come sooner than estimates of two to three weeks.