I've Got To Assume There's A Plan

Some of the reasons why @RobertKennedyJr @mattgaetz @TulsiGabbard @PeteHegseth @KristiNoem *might* have a better chance to be confirmed than the Conventional Wisdom has it:

1. The media likes the “Perils of Pauline” framing for confirmation battles where everything is seen…

— Mark Halperin (@MarkHalperin) November 15, 2024

According to the left-wing Bulwark, Donald Trump Is Dead Serious About Getting Matt Gaetz to DOJ:

Of all the lawyers Trump interviewed to be his next attorney general, the Florida congressman checked the most boxes. Gaetz is a loyal, longtime adviser, an acid-tongued debate champ, and—perhaps most important to the oft-investigated former and future president—an aggrieved target of the feds. Gaetz was the subject of a federal sex-crime probe that he survived and labeled a Deep State fix.

. . . The pick was so audacious that it prompted immediate speculation that Gaetz was actually playing the role of a sacrificial lamb—there to give Republican senators a nominee to tank so that they would have cover to vote yes on other cabinet selections, themselves a mix of respected lawmakers, television personalities, ideological apostates and political allies.

But those familiar with Trump’s thinking say he’s deadly serious about getting Gaetz in at DOJ.

Byron York chimes in with the conventional wisdom:

“I do think it was a terrible pick, and we don’t know the status of the House Ethics Committee investigation into alleged misconduct,” York said. “We do know the Justice Department investigated and didn’t charge him with anything, but the thing we really know, for a fact, is that Matt Gaetz played a hugely aggressive role in nearly destroying the House — the Republican Party in the House of Representatives, based mostly on a personal vendetta against Kevin McCarthy, who was then the speaker of the House.”

“He’s got enemies all over the place, and the reason he has those enemies was that the things he did were so damaging for no good reason,” York explained.

The president-elect’s nomination of Gaetz came as a surprise to many, as the Florida representative was not reported to be on the short list for the position.

Sen Fetterman's remarks indicate what I think is a slightly better, but still imperfect, appreciation of Trump's mindset:

Sen. John Fetterman says Donald Trump tapping Rep. Matt Gaetz for Attorney General is “god tier level trolling.” pic.twitter.com/O7RfrKBRbk

— Brennan Leach (@brennanleach) November 13, 2024

But we nevertheless have to recognize that, as The Bulwark concludes, Trump is serious. Gaetz isn't a sacrificial lamb. The biggest problem he faces is allegations of some type of sexual misconduct that have never been confirmed, first raised on March 30, 2021:

A group of New York Times reporters who won awards for their roles pushing the Russia collusion lie penned an anonymously sourced article with a devastating headline: “Matt Gaetz Is Said to Face Justice Dept. Inquiry Over Sex With an Underage Girl.” The story was sourced to “three people briefed on the matter,” none of them identified in any way. The story contained no evidence against Gaetz of sex crimes, but much guilt-by-association. Late in the story, the pack of reporters admitted that no charges had been filed and that the “extent of his criminal exposure is unclear.”

. . . On [September 23, 2022], 18 months after he was accused of being a pedophile and child sex trafficker, the Washington Post published another anonymously sourced report. “Career prosecutors recommend no charges for Matt Gaetz,” said the article, published quietly on a Friday. Not only was he never convicted of any of the crimes he was alleged to have committed, he wasn’t even charged. And, if you believe the anonymously sourced claims, he isn’t going to be.

The damage was already done by the initial report, written by reporters who regularly regurgitate political leaks from Department of Justice and FBI sources.

“Matt Gaetz’s days in politics are likely numbered,” one CNN reporter claimed days after the initial report, noting how few people had come to his defense.

Nevertheless, Gaetz has managed to survive so far, despite the predictions of his detractors:

Former Vice President Mike Pence’s Chief of Staff Marc Short even accused Gaetz of being a child trafficker just this past July after the congressman said Pence was a “nice guy” but that he would never be president.

“I don’t know if Mike Pence will run for president in 2024, but I don’t think Matt Gaetz will have an impact on that,” Short said. “In fact, I’d be surprised if he’s still voting. It’s more likely he’ll be in prison for child trafficking by 2024.”

It hasn't happened yet, while Trump's return to power seemed equally improbable at the time that article was posted in 2022. Given the circumstances, especially the likely media hoax of the child-trafficking allegations, Trump must see a basic similarity between his own legal and media battles and Gaetz's, and he must envision a similar strategy for winning them, even if we don't know what it might be so far. But that strategy must involve the attorneys who argued his hush-money case in front of Judge Merchan in New York: Trump picks his New York hush money defense lawyers for top spots at DOJ.

President-elect Donald Trump on Thursday tapped the lawyers who represented him in the New York hush money criminal trial for the No. 2 and No. 3 spots at the Department of Justice.

Todd Blanche, a former federal prosecutor who defended Trump in his Manhattan criminal trial, which ended in Trump’s conviction on 34 counts, and his two federal criminal cases, will be deputy attorney general, the second-highest ranking post at DOJ and the person who runs its day-to-day operations, if confirmed. Emil Bove, who also represented the president-elect in the hush money trial and his two federal criminal cases, will serve as principal associate deputy attorney general.

All I can conclude for now is that the events of the past year have shown that it's unwise to underestimate Trump. He isn't just good; he's lucky, but the harder he works, the luckier he gets. It's a major mistake to impute motives like simple trolling, revenge, or childish impulsiveness to the guy. There's more behind the controversial nominations than just that, but we're going to have to wait to see how this all plays out.