Is LA Mayor Bass A "Dead Woman Walking"?

According to Joel Kotkin, Los Angeles Mayor Karen

Bass “is a dead woman walking”, as a union organiser friend told me this week. The revelations of incompetence, poor planning, and awful communication, combined with the fact that the LA mayor was partying in Ghana when wildfires started in her city, have worked against her, and yesterday angry protestors gathered outside her home. Some charges made by Donald Trump and Elon Musk tying the disaster to DEI and climate policies are exaggerated. But Bass’s lack of interest in public safety mirrors the new progressive script which prioritises “social justice” over actual justice, racial quotas over merit, and climate alarmism over common sense.

I'm not so sure about this. The Eaton Fire, one of the two that dominated last week's news, was entirely outside the LA city limits. The Palisades Fire, though, was mainly within city limits, but the part within city limits was Pacific Palisades:

If you were meeting a talent manager for lunch but neither of you wanted to make it a big deal, you met in the Palisades. If you were in the checkout line at the Gelson’s supermarket on Sunset—gone now—you might, as I did years ago, bump into a network executive and find out that your show is about to be cancelled. The Palisades was the central nervous system for show business. It’s anyone’s guess where that will be now that the Palisades is a pile of ashes and embers.

The average annual household income in Pacific Palisades is $359,451, while the median household income sits at $198,550 per year. Residents aged 25 to 44 earn $220,770, while those between 45 and 64 years old have a median wage of $228,849. In comparison, the median household income of Beverly Hills is $116,771. The median household income of Bethesda is $185,546.

Pacific Palisades isn't just the 1%, it's the .01%. The people there don't think much about Karen Bass one way or another; she's elected by the rest of the city, the San Fernando Valley, South Central, San Pedro, East LA, Hollywood. In fact, it's likely that the people who lost their homes in Pacific Palisades won't even live there by the time Bass is up for reelection next year, while the people who voted for her in 2022 will still live in the rest of the city.

So I'm not as sanguine as Joel Kotkin. In fact, the political oucome of the fires is so far inchoate.

On Friday, a union representing more than 3,000 Los Angeles city firefighters gave its full-throated support for Fire Chief Kristin Crowley, who was reportedly called into Democrat Mayor Karen Bass’ office last week to be fired, though she ultimately kept her job.

Mayor Bass and Crowley have been at odds while the city of Los Angeles battles historic wildfires that have so far killed 25 people, and others remain missing. Additionally, Crowley was recently the subject of an anonymous letter from “retired and active LAFD chief officers” condemning her performance as chief, and specifically her decision to call out Mayor Bass on television.

United Firefighters of Los Angeles City Local 112 condemned the letter admonishing Crowley, which they said was signed by “disgruntled and anonymous individuals.” The union also thanked Crowley for being “willing to fight” for her staff and the agency’s budget, the Los Angeles Times reported.

Rick Caruso, who ran unsuccessfully against Bass in 2022, losing by a 10% margin, is thought to be a potential candidate to run against her in 2026 or possibly an earlier recall, but his positions so far are also incoherent:

Former L.A. Mayoral candidate Rick Caruso appeared on Real Time With Bill Maher on Friday to warn the city to be smart about rebuilding after the disastrous wildfires, and noted that Donald Trump was correct when he criticized officials for their lack of dead brush removal policies.

. . . Caruso agreed that Donald Trump issued the right warning about the lack of effective dead brush removal policies in California. The former Republican mayoral candidate also noted that power lines should be buried to prevent sparking wildfires.

On the other hand, in the same program, he apparently thought Trump shouldn't force these policies on the state:

Caruso was razor blunt when it came to threats from Congressional Republicans and President-elect Donald Trump that future federal aid to California for these recent wildfires and future wildfires might not be delivered with such an open hand anymore.

“This idea that the federal aid is going to come with conditions …it’s bullshit,” Caruso blurted out. “Bullshit!”

So which is it? If the state, county, or city won't follow prudent brush removal policies, how else can the federal government enforce them? It's hard to avoid a feeling that Caruso hasn't thought things through; serious opposition to Bass is going to need a more comprehensive agenda that goes beyond brush removal and advocates policies that benefit the rest of the city, which otherwise will see no benefit in electing a mayor who will just keep the wildfires out of the Palisades.

The only good sign here is that Trump is going to visit Los Angeles, apparently later this week:

President Donald Trump’s first official trip after returning to the White House will be to the Los Angeles areas that have been devastated by fires, according to a new report. The news was reported by NewsNation, which cited two unnamed sources for their reporting.

. . . Trump has laid the blame for the destruction on California Governor Gavin Newsom.

“One of the best and most beautiful parts of the United States of America is burning down to the ground,” Trump posted to Truth Social earlier this month. “It’s ashes, and Gavin Newscum should resign. This is all his fault!!!”

It seems to me that Trump has considerable leverage, partly in placing conditions on disaster aid, partly in insisting that the state apply consistent forest management practices on the enormous acreage of federal forest in the state, and partly in enforcing the Supremacy Clause of the US Constitution over California environmental legislation.

In fact, I suspect that Trump will wind up enforcing the authority of the federal government in ways not seen since U S Grant and Reconstruction.