More On Trump's Shutdown Strategy

I'm seeing very little commentary on the shutdown that takes into account what we've been learning about Trump. First, as we've seen with the Hanas deal, little pieces of an overall strategy fall into place over a period of months. The June B-2 raid on Iran's nuclear facilities was seen as an isolated episode that was maybe even ineffective. By October, it began to be recognized that it was a big enoujgh blow to Iranian power and prestige that Iran's neighbors could agree to pressure Iran's client Hamas into a peace deal.

By the same token, the shutdown is just one part of an overall domestic strategy to break down the current structure of the Democrat party. Several things are working to his advantage: Democrat leadership figures are simply aging out: Nancy Pelosi is 85, already retired as Speaker, still retaining her House seat, but increasingly frail. Bernie Sanders is 84, still vocal only because there are no credible younger replacements who aren't jokes, but the calendar is the calendar.

The other major leadership figure still in office is Schumer, a decade younger at 74, but so likely to be defeated in the 2028 primary cycle that he's already a lame duck, with no heir apparent. Trump is acutely aware of this:

“The Democrats have no leader. They remind me of Somalia,” Trump said.

“I don’t, I just don’t know if Schumer has any power anymore. I look at your, your leadership. I don’t know who to speak to.”

Trump has repeatedly claimed Schumer fears a 2028 primary challenge by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), saying: “Schumer is petrified of the primary because he’s not going to win, probably against anybody.”

Most important, Schumer isn't holding the party together in a coherent shutdown strategy, because he can't. One problem is a putative consensus among Democrats that the Republicans should agree to extension of Affordable Care Act premium subsidies, but there's no real assurance that that would be enough, and the specifics of what Democrats might accept have never been clear:

Democrats say they're fighting to restore Medicaid benefits that were cut in President Donald Trump's "Big Beautiful" tax and budget bill, which he signed into law in July.

The morning after the shutdown began, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, told MSNBC that Democrats are not in any way asking for health care for people in the country without legal status.

. . . The new law restricts eligibility only to U.S. citizens, legal permanent residents, i.e. green card holders and certain Cuban and Haitian immigrants.

. . . Democrats want to reverse many of the health care-related provisions included in the new act to keep more Americans, and some lawful immigrants, eligible for Medicaid. They say the shutdown is over preserving healthcare access, and there is no proposal to provide free health care to people living in the country illegally.

So the real dispute isn't over premiums, it involves what additional groups, mainly involving one or another class of migrants, can be added to Medicaid. The question is whether a simple agreement to negotiate continued ACA premium subsidies alone in return for reopening the government would bring enough Democrats around to reach 60 votes, or whether other concessions would be needed.

It's plain that Trump currently sees no urgency in even starting any such negotiation. Ed Kilgore writes in New York Magazine,

Nearly three weeks into the current federal-government shutdown, Democrats have made it clear that their principal — and, perhaps, their sole — demand for cooperating to end it is a commitment to move some sort of bipartisan extension of the Obamacare premium subsidies, due to expire at the end of the year. They may be willing to accept half a loaf, like an ironclad commitment for a vote on a specific measure, or a Trump commitment to back some kind of remedy for an impending health-insurance-price spike that worries Republicans, too.

Kilgore refers to "Democrats" as though they're a single group, but they aren't. At The Hill,

Democratic senators acknowledge a handful of their colleagues would love to end the tense standoff over federal funding, but they say those members are worried a liberal backlash could end their political careers.

“Are there enough Democrats to join Republicans to reopen the government? Not in the near term,” said the Democratic senator who requested anonymity. “There is no bipartisan conversation that’s anything but bulls‑‑‑.”

This is what Trump understands; there's nobody who can shepherd the Democrats into a single group that will negotiate realistically with Republicans, and the moderates are terrified of the leftists. Put another way, Zohran Mamdani and AOC are the de facto leadership of the Democrats, with veto power over any consensus. But neither can they assemble a national majority on their own.

It's also worth remembering that Trump takes a multifaceted approach to solving any problem. The shutdown right now applies to congressional Democrats, but he isn't concentrating just on congressional Demnocrats. He's clearly also taking aim at big-city and blue-state Democrat machines via his parallel crime fighing efforts, sending DHS, ICE, FBI, and the National Guard into places like Chicago, Portland, and San Francisco.

But he isn't stopping there. The military attacks on drug smuggling boats and submarines coming from Venezuela and Colombia are intended to turn off the money spigot that uses drugs to fund the big-city machines. Meanwhile, potential crises loom if the shutdown contines into November, but Trump is deliberately preoccupied with foreign policy:

President Donald Trump — mostly checked out during the standoff — leaves Friday for Asia after spending the weekend at his Palm Beach, Fla., home. The White House feels as if it’s winning the political fight. So if Congress wants to get Trump’s attention, this is the moment to do so.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has been practically begging Trump to get involved in negotiating a deal to extend the enhanced Obamacare premium subsidies. Trump, though, has easily resisted these calls and is letting Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune run the shutdown strategy.

. . . If Democrats are willing to accept a political victory without a policy win, this is a critical moment for Schumer to figure out what this looks like — and how he shields himself from inevitable criticism from the left. What does Schumer demand in exchange for Democratic votes to reopen the government? Is it a vote on extending the subsidies? Will Schumer cut loose some moderates and retiring Democrats? How does he message this publicly?

In other words, Schumer is hoping the potential fallout from a continuing shutdown will lead Trump to rescue him from his own leadership dilemma by opening negotiations. But why should Trump do Schumer any favors? And if he opens negotiations, won't that simply give the left more opportunities to pressure Schumer to try to get more concessions from Trump? Trump has nothing to lose by letting the shutdown continue, and a lot to lose by rescuing Schumer:

It’s day 20 of the Schumer Shutdown, and Donald Trump is winning. Don’t take my word for it—CNN is admitting that this Democrat-led fiasco has done nothing to hurt the president’s approval. In fact, Trump’s approval has increased. CNN’s Harry Enten broke down the numbers. In terms of ‘blame,’ even the networks data cruncher said, “it’s a different world’ for the better for the Trump White House.

The end result of this particular phase in the overall war will likely be continued diminished prestige for Schumer, but the unlikelihood that any serious change in Democrat congressional leadership will emerge. But we need to keep io mind that this is just part of a bigger strategy.