So, How Goes The Shutdown?

There were two long and contentious Senate Democrat caucus lunches this week, from which participants emerged "tight-lipped" but "unified". What they were apparently "unified" about was a Friday offer from Minority Leader Schumer:

"I've spoken with my caucus, and Democrats are offering a very simple compromise," Schumer said during a Friday speech on the Senate floor. "Democrats are ready to clear the way to quickly pass a government funding bill that includes health care affordability. Leader Thune just needs to add a clean, one-year extension of the ACA tax credits to the CR so that we can immediately address rising health care costs."

"Now, the ball is in the Republicans' court. We need Republicans to just say yes," he continued.

Schumer is also demanding a bipartisan commission to negotiate the subsidies.

Schumer is demanding a negotiation, but what he doesn't seem to underatand is that the negotiation is already under way. At the link,

30 minutes after Democrats offered to reopen the government if Republicans agree to extend pandemic-era (temporary) Obamacare enhancements, Republicans rejected it outright - with one senior Senate GOP aide saying it's 'dead on arrival,' Bloomberg reports.

In Thursday's post, I linked yet again to a business school analysis of Trump's negotiating style. Its overall elements are these:

• Trump will announce a best-possible -- or even impossible -- goal, which he will pursue with bravado
• However, he will be ambiguous about what terms he may ultimately accept
• He will also make it plain that he's always willing to walk away from any deal
• He will maneuver his opponent into a position where not accepting Trump's deal puits the opponent in an impossible situation
• Trump will be generous once his deal is accepted.

In summary,

The structured choice approach is powerful because Trump essentially narrows down the other party’s choice set to only two options: one with a clear incentive and the other with an unpredictable (potentially, devastating) threat.

What stage are we at now? Trump has announced his best-possible goal: end the shutdown by nuking the filibuster. He reiterated this yesterday. However, he's been ambiguous about what he might accept short of nuking the filibuster.

But how is he maneuvering the Senate Democrats into one impossible alternative option? Let's keep in mind that the Democrats aren't actually unified. There's a group of moderates that want an off-ramp from he shutdown, and they've gotten as far as pushing Schumer to make the compromise offer he made yesterday, which we may surmise was the outcome of the caucus lunches on Tuesday and Thursday.

Both parties had seemed optimistic heading into this week. But the mood has turned gloomier, and those involved in bipartisan talks were skeptical there would be a breakthrough Friday. GOP leaders were noncommittal Thursday on whether the Senate would stay in Washington through the weekend.

“Unfortunately, it’s folks trying to figure out a path forward. But there is no organized effort at this point that is bearing fruit,” Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.) told reporters Thursday. “There are attempts to find a way to bring people forward, but I’m discouraged. I’m hoping that overnight, things might change a little bit, but I’m not optimistic.”

. . . Some freshman Democratic senators are trying to make progress: Sens. Andy Kim and Lisa Blunt Rochester plan to meet with GOP Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (Penn.) and Jeff Van Drew (N.J.) Friday to talk about a possible bipartisan plan. One Democratic aide involved in bipartisan talks said “we are not going to get a better offer.”

“The hard-liners have yet to articulate any sense whatsoever of how they think this ends or any proposal to get Republicans to the table other than waiting longer and longer,” another Democratic aide said. “And in the meantime it’s the families who can afford it the least that are increasingly getting walloped by the shutdown.”

On one hand, nuking the filibuster is a bad alternative for many senators in both parties. But what other alternatives are available? The hard liners appear to be maintaining a position that they'll continue the shutdown indefinitely until Trump caves. But as Mark Halperin put it recently, the Republicanx have been able to maintain message discipline, while Democrat moderates, as we see above, are clearly getting uncomfortable. Republicans are only feeding the discomfort:

On Friday’s “Alex Marlow Show,” Sen. Dave McCormick (R-PA) discussed the shutdown and said he is “fearful” it will impact Thanksgiving.

Host and Breitbart Editor-in-Chief Alex Marlow asked, “Are the Democrats going to ruin Thanksgiving with the shutdown?”

McCormick said, “I’m fearful they are.”

McCormick added that he figured there would be a resolution after the election because Democrats would soften, but that hasn’t happened.

On one hand, the mere fact that Schumer offered any sort of compromise yesterday is a sign the Democrats are softening, but so far, whatever compromise they can justify to themselves isn't moving Republicans:

GOP senators rejected the offer out of hand. Majority Leader John Thune told CBS News it was a "nonstarter" that "doesn't even get close." Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina called it "terrible" and "political terrorism."

. . . Thune said the Senate is likely to work through the weekend, but he has not scheduled a 15th vote on the House-passed continuing resolution. That vote is seen as the key to unlocking a deal put forward by Republicans that would tie an extension of government funding to a trio of longer-term appropriations bills.

So here is how the alternatives are shaping up for the Democrats:

• Trump could potentially convince enough Republicans to nuke the filibuster if the shutdown goes on long enough
• Any compromise acceptable to enough Democrats won't get Republican support
• Both Republicans and Democrat hard liners are willing to let the shutdown continue
• In effect, Trump is willing to walk away from any deal.

Meanwhile,

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy says it is possible that flight reductions could be increased to 20% if the shutdown continues much longer. Thus far, the disruptions are occurring during what has become a pre-Thanksgiving lull for the airlines, intercity buses, and Amtrak.

But if the shutdown lasts another couple of weeks, things could change. Beyond that,

The Bipartisan Policy Center, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank, estimates that at least 670,000 federal workers are furloughed and roughly 730,000 are working without pay.

The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan federal agency that provides analysis to lawmakers, said in a letter last month that the reduction in hours worked by furloughed federal employees alone could end up costing the economy $14 billion by year-end if the shutdown stretches to Thanksgiving.

So far, it's the Democrat moderates who are clearly the nervous ones. Trump has been running the show, it's pretty clear, and he has the Republican congressional leadership with him. Based on the business-school analysis, his aim is likely to maneuver the Democrats into a position where they have no alternative but to end the shutdown without any meaningful concession from Republicans. This will likely cause a Democrat leadership crisis.

If anyone thought that spinning Tuesday's election results as a disaster for Republicans wouild change Trump's shutdown strategy, that's not how things are working out.