Trump Approval Jumps 5%

According to Just the News,

President Donald Trump's approval rating is on the upswing, with his net approval rising 5 points over the past month in a recent survey.

Trump's approval rating stood at 47% in the December Harvard/Harris survey, up 3 points from the November figures. His disapproval, meanwhile, dropped 2 points, from 51% to 49%.

Though still underwater, Trump appears to have rebounded from the November low of 44% approval and 51% disapproval in that survey.

On one hand, I've been pointing out that all the polls in recent months have been wildly outside the margin of error, although also counterintuitive, so it's reckless to see any sort of trend here. But let's look at what's intuitive about this result.

The big story in the weeks before this poll was taken was the drug boat "double tap" war crime, the big Nuremberg option. This never quite got traction, and it's out of the headlines. As of yesterday, the Real Clear Politics polling average had Trump's approval at 43.5% vs Obama's 41.3% and Dubya's 41.6% at the same point in their second terms. So Trump is actually doing surprisingly well.

And if in fact his approval has increased over the past month, why would this be? I think it's the same factor we saw on 2023-24, when each new indictment and each new trial simply put Trump's name in the news and drove his popularity upward, irrespective of the allegations against him.

Let's also consider some of Trump's most highly controversial remarks, given apparently just before the Harvard-Harris poll.

President Donald Trump on Tuesday [December 2] ripped Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., as “garbage” and said Somalis should “go back to where they came from,” in disparaging remarks that have been strongly criticized by local leaders in Minnesota.

“I don’t want them in our country. I’ll be honest with you, OK. Somebody will say, ‘Oh, that’s not politically correct.’ I don’t care. I don’t want them in our country. Their country is no good for a reason," said Trump, who has a history of disparaging African people and migrant communities.

This sort of thing simply isn't hurting him, and it may even be helping him, although nobody is going to acknowledge this to a pollster. Let's also note that before she announced her resignation, Rep Marjorie Taylor Greene was being pitched, at least by NPR, as the real leader of the Republican Party:

Since Trump returned to office in January, there have been several moments in the background — and sometimes foreground — where some on the right say the president hasn't delivered on domestic priorities that "Make America Great Again" like he promised on the campaign trail.

For almost every instance, Greene has been there to articulate the disconnect.

When the U.S. bombed Iranian nuclear sites in June, Greene was among those who questioned how that fit with Trump's promise to end wars.

. . . As some Republicans expressed concern over humanitarian conditions caused by Israel's war in Gaza, Greene called Israel's actions "genocide" on social media.

. . . Then there's Republican unease with things like mass deportations and tariffs, restricting tech visas and redistricting, as different pockets of the party's big tent object to key pieces of Trump's second-term agenda.

But somehow, the upshot was that Greene announced her resignation from Congress, while Trump's approval has gone up. Still, the conventional wisdom is that the Republicans are going to lose the House next year. I've never bought into this, and it looks like his chief of staff, Susie Wiles, also has other plans:

During an interview on The Mom View, Wiles spoke about the 2026 celebration of the 250th anniversary of the United States, the 2026 Winter Olympics, and the FIFA World Cup. Wiles also referenced how, instead of focusing on localizing the midterm elections, the Trump administration would turn that approach “on its head.”

. . . Wiles went on to explain that “in the midterms, it’s not about who’s sitting at the White House,” but about localizing the election and keeping “the federal officials out of it.”

“We’re actually going to turn that on its head,” Wiles shared. “And, put him on the ballot because so many of those low propensity voters are Trump voters. And, we saw, a week ago Tuesday, what happens when he’s not on the ballot and not active. So, I haven’t quite broken it to him yet, but he’s going to campaign like it’s 2024 again.”

The fact is that Trump and his cabinet are delivering on their campaign promises, and that includes deporting illegal migrants. It isn't going to hurt him if he keeps reminding voters of that.