Yup, The Substitute Standard Bearer Is Roger Kimball

On Tuesday, I noted that with Victor Davis Hanson out of action while he recovers from a serious operation, Instapundit and Real Clear Politics have had to fall back on Roger Kimball, although I demonstrated in that post that it's perfectly possible to generate a recognizable VDH piece using AI, and nobody would see the difference. But today, both Instapundit (here) and Real Clear Politics (here) have linked to the same Roger Kimball essay.

I wouid go so far as to say that Kimball fully recognizes the import of this move. Not only is he subbing for VDH, but he goes several steps beyond: he lifts a phrase from the great Rush Limnbaugh's show opener without attribution: "All across the fruited plain, the self-denominated paragons of virtue. . ." Limbaugh's show opener for many years was, "Greetings to you, music lovers, thrill-seekers, and conversationalists all across the fruited plain."

As far as I can tell, Kimball is sending the message that not only is he stepping in for VDH, he's now assuming the mantle of El Rushbo himself. But let's take a look at what the great man has to say.

[R]emember how the New York Times greeted the news of the fall of the Shah and the advent of Khomenei’s Shia insanity? Writing in our fish-wrap of record, Richard Falk said the Khomenei represented “Islam’s finest hour” and “a new model of popular revolution based, for the most part, on nonviolent tactics.” “Iran,” he concluded, “may yet provide us with a desperately needed model of humane government for a third-world country.” How has that story aged? Compare these images of pre- and post-Islamic societies.

. . . Meanwhile, where is Donald Trump? It’s been widely reported that the US has moved massive assets, including six B-2 bombers and a number of aerial tankers, to within striking distance of Iran. When the action comes it will, I predict, be devastating for that horrible, life-denying form of religious perversion. . . . Patience is hard to maintain while hundreds of innocent civilians are being mowed down nightly. But patience is necessary. The worst thing would be to emulate Jimmy Carter and botch the operation. I looked up the word “half-cocked”: “only partly ready; poorly prepared: half-cocked solutions often change things for the worse.” Keep it in mind.

But Kimball is late -- as of Wednesday, it appears that Trump has changed course:

Wednesday afternoon, President Trump made an astounding about-face from his previous stern warnings to the Iranian regime, contending that he had been told by unnamed sources that “the killing in Iran is stopped,” and “it’s just one of those things.”

Apparently Kimball wasn't up to date on this by the time The Spectator posted it Thursday morning -- its admonition to be patient while we wait for the B-2 strikes is likely to require heroic virtue as his readers continue to wait and wait and wait. But OK, let's grant that there was some sort of glitch, and Kimball already had another set of reactions in the pipeline, but the editors posted an earlier take in error. Have we seen any attempt to recalibrate since then, from Kimball or anyone else? A much better analysis was puiblished a week ago, on January 9, at The Daily Economy, but it mentions neither Trump nor Iran:

In 2016, near the conclusion of his second term, President Barack Obama was asked by Chris Wallace about his greatest mistake as president. Obama didn’t hesitate to respond. He said his “worst mistake” was “probably failing to plan for the day after what I think was the right thing to do in intervening in Libya.”

Five years earlier, a coalition of NATO members, led by France, Britain, and the United States, intervened in the Libyan civil war and overthrew the government of Muammar Gaddafi. This resulted in Gaddafi’s death and the transformation of Libya into a failed state, a condition that persists thirteen years later, which has resulted in an ongoing civil war, countless deaths of civilians, and a humanitarian and refugee crisis. The US-led intervention in Libya was strategically misguided and ultimately harmful, providing a cautionary example for future US foreign policy. It would have been a better option for the United States to have done nothing than to trigger such a calamitous descent into chaos.

It's becoming plain that Trump has had similar concerns:

President Donald Trump seemed to remain ambivalent about the possibility of exiled Iranian Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi taking over the country if the Islamic regime were to fall.

"He seems very nice, but I don't know how he'd play within his own country," Trump told Reuters during an interview on Wednesday. "And we really aren't up to that point yet.

"I don't know whether or not his country would accept his leadership, and certainly if they would, that would be fine with me," he added.

Trump has yet to take a clear stance on Pahlavi since protests erupted in Iran late last month. On Jan. 8, during an interview with Hugh Hewitt, Trump said that he was unsure about meeting with Pahlavi amid the unrest in Iran, saying it might not be "appropriate."

"I've watched him, and he seems like a nice person, but I’m not sure that it would be appropriate at this point to do that as president," Trump said. "I think that we should let everybody go out there, and we see who emerges."

This echoes what appears to have been his approach in Venezuela:

U.S. officials had already settled on an acceptable candidate to replace Mr. Maduro, at least for the time being: Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, who had impressed Trump officials with her management of Venezuela’s crucial oil industry.

The people involved in the discussions said intermediaries persuaded the administration that she would protect and champion future American energy investments in the country.

“I’ve been watching her career for a long time, so I have some sense of who she is and what she’s about,” said one senior U.S. official, referring to Ms. Rodríguez.

. . . [T]he Trump administration has chosen to give Mr. Maduro’s vice president a chance and to pass over [María Corina Machado], who won the Nobel Prize and had at least some allies in Mr. Trump’s circle.

. . . It would be “very tough” for Ms. Machado to take control of her country, Mr. Trump said, adding in his televised speech that she was a “very nice woman” but “doesn’t have the support” in Venezuela to lead.

In other words, it looks like Trump has taken Obama's lesson from Libya to heart as he looks to replace dictatorships. The thing to be said about the mullahs in Iran is that they appear to be able to maintain some semblance of order, which would include maintaining the basics of civilization like water and electricity, when removing them entirely would simply make things worse. If they can manage not to massacre the demonstrators, it's an interim least-bad solution. He's also looking for signs in both Venezuela and Iran that any replacement regime has a chance of success -- Reza Pahlavi and Machado have good press, but little subsance behind it.

So far, we aren't hearing anything like even this from Roger Kimball. On the other hand, having AI generate continued columns that look like they were written by Victor Davis Hanson is a strategy that will demonstrably work. But I know from long experience that Glenn Reynolds won't take my suggestions. I won't even try with Sean Trende.