I Have Real Questions About The Polls

Let's start with just one data item, the Real Clear Politics Trump approval average from yesterday. Trump's approval is 42.8%, his disapproval is 54.6%. The polls that make up the average range from the high 30s to 50% approval in one case, so RCP loads them all together, no matter the differences in methodology and bias, and gets an arithmetic mean, which I'm increasingly convinced is garbage in-garbage out.

Below the numeric totals are several graphs showing Trump's overall approval trends, but I'm intrigued by the one that shows his first-term approvals. By the end of 2020, his approval was roughly 40%, while his disapproval was roughly 57%, which might explain why he "lost" that election -- except now we're beginning to learn that over 300,000 votes in Fulton County, Georgia are in question. He lost Georgia overall by only 11,779 votes. If equivalent questionable results in other states like Michigan and Arizona make the overall outcome of the 2020 election iffy, what does this say about the predictive value of the 2020 polls?

Other polls from recent days add to the question of what presidential "job approval" polls actually measure.

A new poll released by the firm Cygnal has shown that Trump’s deportation agenda continues to grow more popular with the American people in spite of the best efforts of Democrats and the media to malign the administration.

Swing voters and independents overwhelmingly agree that those who have illegally entered the country have broken the law at 82 percent and 70 percent, respectively. Overall, 73 percent of American voters agree with the sentiment, while a surprisingly high 48 percent of Democrats would say that illegal border crossings constitute a crime.

64 percent of the total electorate feels that illegal immigration is a “very” or “somewhat serious problem,” while 61 percent of Democrats feel that it isn’t a problem at all. Swing voters and independents once again side with Republicans, with 71 percent of swing voters and 60 percent of independents being aligned on the issue.

On the issue of deportations, Democrats once again are in opposition to the feelings of the general electorate, with 61 percent of voters saying that they support the deportations of illegals and 67 percent of Democrats standing opposed to deportations.

In other words, the Trump administration's priorities on immigration are overwhelmingly in tune with the electorate at large, and it appears that voters aren't deflected by media attempts to create martyrs of activists like Renee Good or Alex Pretti. If Trump is so clearly executing on policies that the voters support on such a major issue, why is his approval so low? But beyond that, how is it possible to interpret the poll numbers themselves so differently? At Rasmussen's own site,

A new I&I/TIPP poll conducted at the end of January shows that Trump’s overall favorability and job approval remain mostly unchanged from the previous month. Forty-one percent of voters view him favorably, while 40% approve of his job performance. Unfavorable and disapproval ratings are about 50% and 51%, respectively. These are not landslide numbers, but the key point is what they are not: they are not declining.

In other words, looking at fairly dismal results for Trump in recent months, at least the glass is half full. But the piece raises other unintentional questions:

This consistency is especially notable considering the intense opposition Trump has faced since returning to the White House. His first year has been characterized by ongoing controversy over immigration enforcement, public safety, and foreign policy, along with constant media scrutiny. Yet despite these challenges, his support has remained largely steady rather than declining.

But if pollsters focus on one such major issue, immigration enforcement, voters are in fact heavily aligned with Trump. On public safety, crime is down, with the unspoken explanation that criminals are leaving the country. Foreign policy appears to be going well, with Maduro out in Venezuela while the country is stable, and reallocation of Venezuelan oil is threatening Cuba and Iran. So the real question is why Trump's support is just "largely steady" instead of increasing. The piece more or less concludes,

Trump’s leadership style – straightforward, results-driven, and centered on national priorities – can garner support across different demographic groups when voters see concrete results on issues they care about most.

But again, why isn't this reflected in ongoing polling, and why have polls continued to be wildly inaccurate? Last November, I pointed out,

• The Real Clear Politics average for the New Jersey governor's race had Sherrill ahead by 2.7%, and many commentators had this within the margin of error. She won by 56.3% to Ciattarelli's 43.2%, a 13.1% margin.
• The RCP average for the Virginia governor's race had Spanberger ahead by 8.5%. She won by 57.2% to Earle Sears's 43.6%, a 13.5% margin.

I think, ruminating on the continuing revelations from Fulton County, that the answers suggest that either (a) the polls are rigged, or (b) the elections are rigged, or (c) both of the above. The piece at Rasmussen is in line with what Rasmussen wants us to believe, the polls can't tell us much, but they're all we have, so we should be optimistic about them. Really? More people need to start with the question of why, at minimum, the polls are rigged and come up with an answer of how.