Is Spencer Pratt Going To Win?

The photo above was taken by my friend Roy, and he posted it on Facebook. If you click on the image to get a larger version, you'll see that ZOMBIELAND replaces the HOLLYWOOD sign. He asks,

This billboard is on the southeast corner of Santa Monica and Westwood. I don't think Zombieland is anywhere near there.

How do you get to Zombieland? Over the hill or underland or just behind the tree?

This is part of Pratt's problem. There's a strain of opinion that says Spencer Pratt "will win":

This line is how you know Spencer Pratt is radically different and will win.

“We’re going have LA so beautiful. No more of these high density, SP79 prison-like structures. We need to bring art deco back… I’m going to have a canal… bike lanes going through the sky through… pic.twitter.com/j1OSyP6w1F

— Sean Semanko (@SeanSemanko) May 12, 2026

Mark Halperin has renewed his prediction:

Nobody who says this, though, is very specific. Will he win 51% in the June primary and avoid a runoff, or will he at least wind up in the top two on June 2 and pull things out in November? Nobody wants to be that specific. He has such great ads! The only realistic take I've seen is from John Nolte at Breitbart:

The first poll published after Spencer Pratt’s triumph in the May 6 Los Angeles mayor’s debate has no good news for the Republican.

The only notable movement in the Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics (of 1,000 likely primary voters surveyed on May 9-10) is fewer undecideds. In this same poll in March, 51 percent of those surveyed were undecided. This poll shows only 16 percent undecided.

The relative positions of the top three candidates are unchanged. Incumbent Karen Bass leads now at 30%, Spencer Pratt is second with 22%, and Mamdani clone Nithya Raman is third at 19%. Nolte sums the situation up:

This poll has a margin of error of +/- three percent, so Raman could sneak in and take that second spot, which would bump Pratt out of the race entirely.

But let’s say Pratt survives the primary and goes to the general election against Bass. Does anyone believe that the 19 percent who support Raman will go to Pratt? It won’t. She’s a leftist like Bass.

What’s more, with just 22 percent support and 16 percent undecided, Pratt won’t hit 40 percent even if every undecided moves his way.

He concludes with wbhat I think is an overestimate of Pratt: "Spencer Pratt is a superb candidate. . . . The good news is that if Pratt makes it past the June 2 primary, if it’s just Pratt v. Bass, he’s such a talent that there is some hope." But I don't see the "superb" there. His current line is, "We need to bring art deco back. . . I’m going to have a canal. . . bike lanes going through the sky through tunnels." I don't think anyone takes this seriously. His ads have gotten national attention, but they aren't moving votes in LA.

I think some part of the problem is that Los Angeles City is just part of Los Angeles County, which in turn is just part of California, which has big overall problems. The Mayor of Los Angeles, however good his intentions, isn't going to fix those problems. My guess is that the statewide political machine can remain in place until the money that feeds it -- fraud and kickbacks from federal grants -- is turned off. This will take a sustained effort from Washingron over multiple presidential terms. Trump's basic strategy of turning off the money spigot is, however, correct.

Another obstacle is that affluent parts of town, Encino, West Los Angeles, the Hollywood Hills, and Hancock Park, continue to be isolated enough from Zombieland that they don't actually feel enough direct threat to change their votes. These neighborhoods can afford private security patrols to supplement police, which keeps their streets somewhat safer. Pacific Palisades used to be one of those neighborhoods; too few of the residents in places like that understand that City Hall is not on their side.

His ads simply aren't stressing that leftists want to eliminate the bourgeoisie, or at least drive them out of town. Neither Bass nor Raman has any intention of rebuilding Pacific Palisades, ever; after a decent interval, they'll put up low-income housing there. If other affluent areas burn, which threatens to take place every few decades, they'll do the same there with the help of a downgraded fire department. Pratt seems to think this point will make itself; it won't, and he's not making it.

And especially since COVID, fewer and fewer people work downtown, which separates them farther from Zombieland. We attended a wedding a couple of years ago that involved driving from the gentrified USC area through downtown to the reception near the garment district. This involved driving through the heart of Zombieland, the homeless encampments under the I-10 and the tents all over skid row, a sobering experience to everyone who did it. The problem is that not enough do, and even that occasional experience isn't enough to change votes.

So Pratt's ads are well done, people like Mark Halperin think they'll change votes because they're amusing, but they aren't engaging voters where they matter. He may get as far as forcing Bass into a runoff, but I very much doubt that witty and well-executed ads will change many votes in November.