Forecast: More Angry Joe

According to Politico yesterday,

Fresh off a high-profile speech in which he warned that a dagger had been placed at the throat of American democracy, President Joe Biden will travel to the state that White House officials view as “ground zero” for Republican-led election suppression efforts.

Biden will speak in Georgia on Tuesday. In his remarks, he is expected to not only echo the themes of his address on the anniversary of the Jan. 6 insurrection but to expand on his endorsement of a filibuster carveout to pass voting rights legislation in the Senate.

. . . “We are doubling down, kicking it into another gear, we are going right to the belly of the beast, or ground zero, for voter suppression, voter subversion and obstruction,” said Cedric Richmond, White House senior adviser and director of the Office of Public Engagement.

Politico makes the point that the real issue isn't Georgia, it's Sen Manchin, though Manchin himself isn't named:

“It's really about the fact that there's a vote coming up,” said Richmond. “The Senate leader has voiced his plan. We supported his plan, and we're going to use the White House to try to galvanize the votes.”

Despite the renewed push by the White House, major hurdles remain in the form of Senate Democrats not yet willing to make changes to the filibuster rules. Richmond said that Biden continues to talk to lawmakers one-on-one and with the group of senators spearheading talk of how to get the voting and elections reform bills passed. “He’s been working the phones on voting rights,” he added.

Here's what's puzzling. Manchin has been sending the message, as of last weekend at least twice, that scolding him in public is counterproductive. Apparently Biden's staff is continuing to reassure him that instead, it will bring Manchin around if he just does it more. As I noted yesterday, the staff appears to be leaking stuff to the press that negotiations are under way, while Manchin keeps saying no such thing is happening. The last paragraph above seems to be a variation on this theme.

Last week I linked to stories that also suggested the angry tone of Biden's January 6 address came from Biden himself, not just his staff. We may assume that any continued angry tone in Atlanta will come from Biden himself as well. This will mostly just galvanize the Trump base and poison the atmosphere going into the midterms.

This also effectively plays into House Republican leader McCarthy's strategy for the election:

“Any time you have an election that has contrast, clear contrast—like, if Republicans were trusted with the majority, what would you do?” McCarthy said. “We’ll come out with a Commitment to America. What we’ve been doing for the last year is all the members are on task forces. We’ve been working on policy.”

Some specific policy items he previewed that will be in it include the GOP’s “Parents’ Bill of Rights,” plans to secure the border and for holding the Chinese Communist Party accountable for the coronavirus pandemic, Republicans’ public safety vision to contrast with Democrat pushes to defund police, energy policies, and perhaps most importantly economic policies to stop inflation.

One thing that stumps me is that, in the wake of the Christmas Eve Let's go Brandon troll on national TV, Biden didn't immediately shift to endorsing, but redefining, Let's go Brandon himself. In his public statements earlier last fall, Brandon Brown expressed the idea that the chant was more of a positive message about America than a specific denunciation of Biden, and the announcement of his aborted NASCAR sponsorship made the same point. Biden himself missed an opportunity at Christmas to use his gaffe to co-opt the chant and even insist that it reflected his own positive agenda.

Instead, his message is angry and scolding. I'm more and more convinced that it doesn't come from his handlers, it comes from the big guy himself. Some of his handlers may even know better, but that's how they keep their jobs.