So, Are The Neocons Back?

I've been more closely following retired Gen Jack Keane, a frequent Fox talking head, since I discoverd he's the Chairman of the Institute for the Study of War, which I've been discussing lately. The ISW is pretty clearly a neoconservative think tank, and while its assessments of the Russo-Ukraine War have been remarkably obtuse, there can be little question that it's in frequent contact with generals who are in the Pentagon policy loop. But now Gen Keane in the video above is suggesting the Pentagon policy loop isn't necessarily the White House policy loop. In response to sound bites from Pentagon spokesman John Kirby saying, "We want the Ukrainians to win this war". Keane says,

... really the first time we've heard that from the administration, I'm actually convinced, I mean that's where the Pentagon leaders actually feel, but Secretary Blinken avoids the subject, the national security adviser does the same, and certainly the President of the United States does the same. I was very encouraged by the prime minister of the UK going to Kyiv this weekend . . .

Oddly, this is echoed by a story on Summit News:

A French journalist who returned from Ukraine after arriving with volunteer fighters told broadcaster CNews that Americans are directly “in charge” of the war on the ground.

The assertion was made by Le Figaro senior international correspondent Georges Malbrunot.

Malbrunot said he had accompanied French volunteer fighters, two of whom had previously fought against ISIS.

“I had the surprise, and so did they, to discover that to be able to enter the Ukrainian army, well it’s the Americans who are in charge,” said Malbrunot.

Adding that he and the volunteers “almost got arrested” by the Americans, who asserted they were in charge, the journalist then revealed that they were forced to sign a contract “until the end of the war.”

“And who is in charge? It’s the Americans, I saw it with my own eyes,” said Malbrunot, adding, “I thought I was with the international brigades, and I found myself facing the Pentagon.”

Citing a French intelligence source, Malbrunot also tweeted that British SAS units “have been present in Ukraine since the beginning of the war, as did the American Deltas.”

Russia is apparently well aware of the “secret war” being waged in Ukraine by foreign commandos who have been in the region since February.

Both the United States and the UK have publicly asserted that there won’t be “boots on the ground” in Ukraine, but apparently there has been a US-UK military presence since the start of the war.

Certainly we've seen a resurgence of neocon opinion recently, with the ISW the most prestigious source of Russo-Ukraine war analysis, however obtuse, opaque, and noncommittal it may be; Eliot Cohen a marquee writer at The Atlantic; and even Francis Fukuyama, 30 years after declaring history ended, inexplicably giving it and his career a jump start. Let's step back to Wikipedia's discussion of neoconservatism:

Neoconservatism is a political movement that was born in the United States during the 1960s among liberal hawks who became disenchanted with the increasingly pacifist foreign policy of the Democratic Party and with the growing New Left and counterculture of the 1960s, particularly the Vietnam protests. Some also began to question their liberal beliefs regarding domestic policies such as the Great Society. Neoconservatives typically advocate the promotion of democracy and interventionism in international affairs, including peace through strength, and are known for espousing disdain for communism and political radicalism.

. . . Many of its adherents became politically influential during the Republican presidential administrations of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, peaking in influence during the administration of George W. Bush, when they played a major role in promoting and planning the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan and the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

. . . The Bush Doctrine was greeted with accolades by many neoconservatives. When asked whether he agreed with the Bush Doctrine, Max Boot said he did and that "I think [Bush is] exactly right to say we can't sit back and wait for the next terrorist strike on Manhattan. We have to go out and stop the terrorists overseas. We have to play the role of the global policeman. ... But I also argue that we ought to go further". Discussing the significance of the Bush Doctrine, neoconservative writer Bill Kristol claimed: "The world is a mess. And, I think, it's very much to Bush's credit that he's gotten serious about dealing with it. ... The danger is not that we're going to do too much. The danger is that we're going to do too little.

. . . Barack Obama campaigned for the Democratic nomination during 2008 by attacking his opponents, especially Hillary Clinton, for originally endorsing Bush's Iraq-war policies. Obama maintained a selection of prominent military officials from the Bush Administration including Robert Gates (Bush's Defense Secretary) and David Petraeus (Bush's ranking general in Iraq).

. . . Several neoconservatives played a major role in the Stop Trump movement in 2016, in opposition to the Republican presidential candidacy of Donald Trump, due to his criticism of interventionist foreign policies, as well as their perception of him as an "authoritarian" figure. Since Trump took office, some neoconservatives have joined his administration, such as Elliott Abrams. Neoconservatives have supported the Trump administration's hawkish approach towards Iran and Venezuela, while opposing the administration's withdrawal of troops from Syria and diplomatic outreach to North Korea. Although neoconservatives have served in the Trump administration, they have been observed to have been slowly overtaken by the nascent populist and national conservative movements, and to have struggled to adapt to a changing geopolitical atmosphere.

Biden's precipitous withdrawal from Afghanistan must certainly be seen as a final rejection of Bush-era neoconservative and interventionist policies -- except that it's not hard to conclude that Biden's implicit rejection of those policies encouraged Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

So is the Pentagon reverting to neoconservatism? Are the lizard people running the country reverting to a containment consensus more like Kennedy, LBJ, Nixon, Reagan, and the Bushes, sponsoring proxy wars against the successor to the Soviet Union? They and the Pentagon are likely running an implicit version of the 1980s Reagan-Thatcher alliance in Ukraine, with the Thatcher surrogate in the UK, but so far without Biden playing Reagan. Biden, though, is preoccupied at best.

My bet is Gen Keane is in the loop, but President Brandon is not.