What's Newsom Up To?

For someone who claims he isn't running for president, Gavin Newsom sure is in the news a lot:

California Gov. Gavin Newsom told NewsNation host Chris Cuomo he will not be making a 2024 presidential run and will instead continue to back President Joe Biden.

“I have deep respect, reverence for Joe Biden as a person, his character, his decency and his capacity to do great things,” Newsom told Cuomo. “That’s why. I’m not worthy of that conversation. This guy deserves it, and we as members of the party deserve to have his back.”

Newsom has been considered as a possible Democratic presidential contender by some analysts, but he has repeatedly said he will not run in 2024.

Nevertheless, his presence at the Republican debate in Simi Valley tonight, although ostensibly as a Biden spokesman, raises other possibilities:

CBS13's Steve Large spoke to political strategist Doug Elmets about Newsom's presence.

Steve: "Why would Gavin Newsom want to be at the Republican Presidential debate?"

Elmets: "This is a great opportunity for Gavin Newsom to continue to increase his national profile."

Former Ronald Reagan aide Elmets says Newsom's attendance at the debate helps Biden deliver democratic talking points.

"He's quick on his feet, he's smart," Elmets said.

Elmets says it also puts Newsom in a position to replace Biden if the President does not become the nominee.

"Should Joe Biden trip or fall he wants to be the person that's there to not maybe lift him up, but maybe stand in his place," Elmets said.

There's also the question of why Newsom, who's teased the idea of debating Ron DeSantis since last spring, finalized an agreement to do the debate on November 30, even though this came after his announcement that he wouldn't challenge Biden for the nomination.

If nothing else, this raises Newsom's profile, even if DeSantis has become an also-ran opponent, and it sets up a quasi-campaign context for Newsom when the Democrats otherwise prefer no serious primary challenge for Joe

On the other hand, Newsom can always claim he's just doing it to help Biden, and he can do that until Biden for whatever reason drops out, at which point he's the clear candidate to succeed Joe. But this dodges the question of Kamala, which this piece in the Washington Exsminer also raises:

She is a fellow Californian and the first female, black, and Asian vice president, which could make things awkward for the white male Newsom should he try to overtake her. Yet her approval ratings are dismal, and hopes are fading for her to further connect with Democratic voters.

Team Harris was reportedly upset by Newsom's plan to debate DeSantis, and even his rumored status as a 2024 backup comes with some risk.

“There’s certainly a concern about stepping on her toes,” Cummins said. “That’s the job of the vice president, to fill in if Biden has some health scare or health issue that would incapacitate him. That’s why we have a vice president.”

It's worth pointing out, though, that Nancy Pelosi continues to run the California Democrat machine, of which Newsom and Harris are both members in good standing, if not the whole Democrat party, and she can and will impose a resolution. She did this when she chose Obama over Hillary in 2008:

She was somewhat cool to Clinton and her campaign from the very beginning of the 2008 cycle, and over time began sending clear signals that Obama is her candidate. When George Miller and Anna Eshoo, fellow House Democrats from California through whom Pelosi often telegraphs her wishes, endorsed Obama a few months back, the hand of the Speaker was apparent.

I have a sense she's still just as capable of determining the outcome now as she was then. In fact, I would go so far as to say Pelosi has already gamed the whole set of contingencies out and already let the players know what her preferences are.

I would also say that Newsom is playing his current game while he consults with Pelosi, and the moves he's making now are with her full foreknowledge and approval. That she should even allow a situation where there's any ambiguity at all over Joe's future, with Newsom as the most credible replacement, is significant in itself.

The mere fact that Newsom is allowed to do ambiguous things means Pelosi is making plans. If Joe withdraws as a 2024 candidate, it will be because Pelosi and a few others decide his chances in November are nil. At that point, the only credible replacements are Newsom, JB Pritzker, and Kamala, with Newsom the most attractive choice. Pritzker is short, fat, and Jewish; Kamala is Kamala.

I think Pelosi would order that Kamala be kept on the ticket as vice president to satisfy African-Americans, with the potential that she could succeed to the presidency made safely remote due to Newsom's relative youth, and Newsom would become the nominee.

At least, that's how I see it now.