They've Been Working All Weekend For Months

As I write this morning, the reports are that Speaker Pelosi intends to hold a vote on the BBB today, having postponed it from yesterday. This, of course, is what we've been hearing since September -- a "vote as early as [insert day]", followed by an imperious but belated notice from the speaker that "I'll let you know" when they have the votes, which never quite turn up. Last week, President Biden visited the House to beg the full Democrat caucus for their votes, but that didn't work.

The word was the leadership blamed him for not begging them hard enough, so as of last night, he was calling individual holdouts to beg all the more.

President Joe Biden, having failed twice to convince House Democrats to back his legislative agenda, resorted Thursday to personally calling lawmakers to beg them to vote for the $1.75 trillion Build Back Better Act.

I don't see Joe Biden as a closer. The establishment media has been perpetually optimistic about these impending votes, despite their track record of never quite taking place. Buried deep in its story about what might happen today, Politico provides a certain amount of detached analysis:

Several moderate Democrats chafed at the idea of voting on a bill with several provisions that are dead on arrival in the Senate — one of the clearest requests they’d had from the start, alongside a warning that such a vote would invite GOP attack ads.

As far back as this summer, moderate Reps. Stephanie Murphy (D-Fla.) and Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) warned party leaders they wouldn’t back legislation that hadn’t cleared the Senate’s political tripwires — namely, Manchin and Sinema — as well as the budgetary ones that would determine whether the bill could pass the upper chamber without a filibuster.

Those anxieties intensified after the party’s battering in Virginia and other down-ballot races on Tuesday, when the most vulnerable Democrats watched culture-war issues consume even suburbs that have trended blue.

“It seems like we're making the [social spending bill] more complicated and something that's harder to pass,” said Rep. Scott Peters (D-Calif.). He's one of the dozen-plus beleaguered moderates who have urged leadership to pivot their attention to the Senate-passed infrastructure deal, rather than ramming through a rushed bill.

. . . Even if House Democrats' swing doesn't whiff, some saw the push for Friday's vote as already insufficient.

“If there was supposed to be a rush, the rush should’ve been before Tuesday’s election,” said Rep. Filemón Vela (D-Texas), one of nine moderates who demanded an infrastructure vote in September.

But in fact, there was a rush to get a vote last Thursday, when the plea went out to preserve the president's prestige going into his trip to Rome and Scotland, and he delayed his departure to beg in person -- despite the tradition that presidents don't go to Capitol Hill unless the votes are already in hand.

However, I think the real reason for last week's rush was to get the vote before the results from Tuesday's election further spooked the moderates. Here's how I think of this right now:

• The moderates still aren't locked in, and they're indeed now spooked. If they vote "yes", they're locked into that unpopular vote going into a tough 2022 campaign, not even assured the BBB will pass the Senate, given Sen Manchin's reservations.
• President Biden's prestige is insufficient to change their minds, and I can't imagine how excruciating a personal call from the big guy must be, given his awkward stammering, gaffes, and misspeaks.
• Especially given Tuesday's outcomes, the likelihood of losing the Democrat House majority next November is even greater, which also increases the likelihood of Speaker Pelosi's retirement. Her impending lame duck status limits her ability to take revenge for "no" votes, which had been the source of her power in the past.

Add to this Rep Jayapal's remarks this morning:

Congressional Progressive Caucus Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.) said on Friday that it’s worth Democrats passing the party’s sweeping social spending and climate change package even if they lose the House in next year’s midterm elections.

. . . "Of course it's worth it if we're making people's lives better,” Jayapal said.

Rep Jayapal, along with the other progressives, has a safe seat. She'll keep her job no matter what. The moderates, not so much. Her statement makes it clear that the leadership is willing to sacrifice them for this vote, which is simply another side of the Götterdämmerung strategy. Some people will in fact survive the end of the world, just not the suckers. Updates on the process so far indicate there are still moderate holdouts:

Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine), a centrist who represents a district carried by former President Trump, emerged from Pelosi's office reiterating that there should be a CBO score.

Asked if there will be a vote on Friday, Golden said: "That's a good question. I don't know."

Golden may be a tough get for Democratic leaders on the social spending package anyway.

For now, I think the existing pattern will repeat, and no vote will take place.