"Viral Blizzard"?

I comtinue to think we're going through an effort to reboot the scary flashing red circles of March 2020. Even the conserative aggregators are running clickbait headlines about a new "viral blizzard":

A former COVID-19 adviser for President Biden's transition on Thursday warned of a “viral blizzard” that is about to hit the U.S. as COVID-19 cases rise and concerns about the omicron variant continue to fester.

Michael Osterholm, who served on Biden’s coronavirus advisory team during the transition, said in an appearance on CNN that the health care system could be overwhelmed as omicron becomes more prevalent in the U.S.

"I think we're really just about to experience a viral blizzard," Osterholm told CNN's Erin Burnett. "I think in the next three to eight weeks, we're going to see millions of Americans are going to be infected with this virus, and that will be overlaid on top of delta, and we're not yet sure exactly how that's going to work out."

But Dr Osterholm has been a consistent COVID entrepreneur, outdoing even Dr Fauci. A little over a year ago, he said,

Shutting down businesses and paying people for lost wages for four to six weeks could help keep the coronavirus pandemic in check and get the economy on track until a vaccine is approved and distributed, said Dr. Michael Osterholm, a coronavirus advisor to President-elect Joe Biden.

Osterholm, who serves as director of the Center of Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said earlier this week that the country is headed toward “Covid hell.” Cases are rising as more people grow tired of wearing masks and social distancing, suffering from so-called “pandemic fatigue,” he said Wednesday. Colder weather is also driving people indoors, where the virus can spread more easily.

That is to say, in November 2020, fully six months after lockdowns were finally lifted, he wanted to reimpose them for "four to six weeks". Yeah, like 15 days to flatten the curve. It looks like not even Dr Fauci bought into that one. So I've got to put "viral blzzard" in the context of last year's "Covid hell". We got through hell, I assume we'll make it through a blizzard.

Next we have Omicron more likely to reinfect than Delta, no milder -study, which was the lead at one of the aggregators yesterday:

Dec 17 (Reuters) - The risk of reinfection with the Omicron coronavirus variant is more than five times higher and it has shown no sign of being milder than Delta, a study showed, as cases soar across Europe and threaten year-end festivities.

The results of the study by Imperial College London were based on UK Health Security Agency and National Health Service data on people who tested positive for COVID-19 in a PCR test in England between Nov. 29 and Dec. 11.

Aha! Imperial College London! The same institution that foisted the discredited models that led to the 2020 lockdowns on us! I'm entitled to be skeptical here, too.

But there's another issue we still need to address, something I only gradually learned to look at during my postgraduate studies in the University of Hard Knocks, a reasonability check. The numbers we're seeing in these stories suggest a dire outcome three, six, or eight weeks from now. That's what Drs Osterholm and Fauci are telling us as we speak. These predictions are supported by assertions like "more than five times higher", or the one below:

The exact number is 21,027 cases, the first time New York State has officially cracked 20,000 in a day. It’s a cinch that case counts were higher than that in the early days of the pandemic, before testing was available, but give it a week. The way Omicron spreads, they’re likely headed for a true record in daily COVID infections. In fact, if it’s true that the variant’s doubling time is two to three days, New York State could reach 100,000 cases by Christmas Day. The entire United States is averaging “only” 125,000 right now.

But "if it's true" that the variant's doubling time is two to three days, with eight days to Christmas as of yesterday and thus up to four doublings, we're actually talking about roughly 300,000 new cases per day by Christmas, aren't we? By January 1, we're up to over a million new cases per day. By January 31, we're talking something like the entire US case total to date per day, about 50 million. Two days after that, 100 million per day. Two days after that, 200 million new cases per day, after which we quickly exceed the US population in new cases per day. These are Ponzi scheme numbers. Professors of math and statistics warn us to be skeptical of such. And I have no idea where this guy, who claims to be a conservative, is getting estimates like a doubling time of two to three days.

And consider that if random people in the US had been returning from South Africa in mid-November and spreading cases at that rate, a month later we should already be looking at very noticeable numbers all over, when the current spikes in some regions are simply consistent with those we've seen over the past two years, while states like California and Florida remain flat. So far, rhe Omicron panic isn't passing a reasonability check.

But add to that the stories that, taken in context with what we already aren't seeing, suggest Omicron has in fact arrived, it's indeed spreading fast, but it's a non event:

The omicron variant has quickly surpassed the delta variant in collections taken from wastewater sampling sites in Orange County [Florida], officials said.

A sampling this week showed that omicron represented almost 100% of the strains in the samples from the wastewater facilities, Orange County Utilities spokesperson Sarah Lux said in an email.

It’s a different story when it comes to people seeking treatment for COVID-19, officials said.

“Those who are hospitalized are being primarily infected by the delta variant,” Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings said Wednesday at a news conference held at the Orlando International Airport.

But remember that Florida is a state that hasn't had any sort of spike in cases even as Omicron permeates the sewers in Orlando. So I think my seat-of-the-pants estimate that if Omicron is here, we should be seeing it already is correct -- but so far, people aren't getting sick from it or even noticing it. And there's this news from South Africa:

South Africa, which announced the discovery of the variant on Nov. 25, is being watched as a harbinger of what may happen with omicron elsewhere.

. . . Currently there are about 7,600 people with Covid-19 in South African hospitals, about 40% of the peak in the second and third waves. Excess deaths, a measure of the number of deaths against a historical average, are just below 2,000 a week, an eighth of their previous peak.

“We are really seeing very small increases in the number of deaths,” said Michelle Groome, head of health surveillance for the country’s National Institute for Communicable Diseases.

More than 90% of hospital deaths were among the unvaccinated or partially vaccinated, News24 reported, citing Waasila Jassat, a researcher with the NICD.

The problem is that the entrepreneurs, Biden, Fauci, Osterholm and so forth, are laying markers that we should be seeing a dire outcome in a matter of weeks, something that can easily be confirmed or discredited in a short period -- but if the virus is behaving like they claim it is, we should be seeing something much worse even now.