Friday, April 15, 2022

Defeat In Detail

I'm scratching my head. Throughout the Ukraine war, the phrase "defeat in detail" has been more or less entering my random thoughts before I fall asleep at night, proobably because I've always assumed it was generally recognized as a key to Ukraine's strategy in the current war. A quick and easy definition is at Encyclopedia.com:

DEFEAT IN DETAIL. In the correct military sense—in the twenty-first as well as in the eighteenth century—this term means "the defeat in turn of the separated parts of a force." To avoid "defeat in detail," a commander keeps all his units within "supporting distance" of each other.

The standard examples (as the one in the video above) include Napoleon's Piedmont campaign and the 1914 Battle of Tannenberg. Another less-cited example, which might be better from my point of view, would be Washington's overall strategy in the Revolution (which I believe Cornwallis himself conceded was a success using that term). But one that fits the definition in Encyclopedia.com even more closely is the current Ukraine strategy in the war with Russia.

The conventional wisdom so far has been that Ukraine's victory in the Battle of Kyiv is an entirely different matter from the putative upcoming battle in Donbas, in which the Russians will be (and this is never completely clear) either Gen Manstein or Gen Zhukhov and smash Ukraine with overwhelming numbers of tanks. Whichever, it's gonna be a big Russian victory or something.

This is in spite of what strikes me as the completely uncontroversial conclusion by the Institute for the Study of War that the forces Russia is trying to recommit to eastern Ukraine "remain degraded, and Russian forces will face challenges integrating units from several military districts into a cohesive fighting force".

In addition, the separate assessments at the Militaryland.com site contain remarks like, "The convoy of Russian army have been moving towards Izium for the third day, and it’s kinda a déjà vu to the Kyiv one." In general, the Russian strategy, insofar as a coherent one even exists, hasn't changed since Kyiv, and in fact, what we're actually seeing on YouTube videos and other press reports is a steady stream of small battles in both the Donetsk and Kherson regions like this one:

Military personnel of the Joint Forces successfully repulsed 6 attacks by the Russians and terminated 15 units of military hardware belonging to the aggressors on the Donetsk and Luhansk fronts on 14 April.

"On 14 April, Ukrainian defenders destroyed 4 tanks, 6 armoured personnel carriers, 4 infantry fighting vehicles and one artillery system belonging to the enemy."

Footage from what may be either this encounter or any number of similar ones on YouTube indicates that this sort of action, taken against a single column of Russian vehicles, amounts to destroying the combat effectivenss of an individual battalion tactical group, apparently dispatched independently and without supoport from others. Estimates of the number of BTGs in eastern Ukraine are from 35 to 50, and as the ISW keeps pointing out, these are already understrength and degraded. The Oryx site continues to catalog the destruction, abandonment, and capture of dozens of tanks, armored vehicles, and weapons each day. As of this morning, its number of such on the Russian side is 2899, and there's apparently a backlog in counting. The Russians are repeating the same failures but expecting a different result.

What we're actually seeing in eastern Ukraine and Kherson is simply a continuation of the Ukrainian strategy we saw in Kyiv, which is misreported as a "stalemate" punctuated by minor skirmishes -- until, unexpectedly, the Russians collapse and retreat in disorder.

Ukraine has so far been able tactically to push back the Russian invasion in detail, in effect a battalion tactical group at a time. Strategically, it's generally acknowledged that the Russian invasion relied on multiple separated parts of a force that were in fact not in supporting distance of each other, which so far has enabled the Ukraine resistance on both small scale and large.

I did a web search on "Ukraine" and "defeat in detail" and came up with only 534,000 hits, most of which date from before the current war. They threw me out of ROTC.

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