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Showing posts from June 22, 2022

Reaction To The EU's Move On Kaliningrad

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Media reaction to the situation in Kaliningrad has been slow. The best I've seen so far is from CNBC : Timothy Ash, senior sovereign strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, commented Tuesday that “it’s fair to say that Kaliningrad is a strategic imperative for Russia” noting that defending and sustaining it certainly is. “Russia will react for sure, the only question is what that will be ... [and] what Russia could do militarily,” he noted. “A land attack to drive a corridor through Lithuania would be a direct attack on Lithuania triggering NATO Article 5 defence. Putin knows this - that’s war with NATO. Can Putin afford that when he is struggling to deliver on even his now much-reduced strategic objectives in Ukraine? He would also have to launch an assault through Belarus, stretching his supply lines, and splitting his forces,” he noted. Ash suggested that Russia could seek to use its sizeable naval assets in the Baltic Sea to enforce some kind of tit-for-tat blockad...