Is The Race Really "Razor Thin"?
We're continuing to see headlines like Emerson Poll: Presidential Race Razor-Thin; Senate Race Tightening . This has been some version of the story of the presidential race since Kamala's nomination -- except that in recent weeks, there's been another, like Robert Reich in The Guardian: Donald Trump is gaining on Kamala Harris in the polls. I have some theories why. How can the race be stuck at "razor thin" when Trump is gaining? This is the sort of question I was taught not to ask in college, and as I was a schoolmate of Robert Reich back in the day, I must assume he absorbed that lesson well. He asks, With less than 40 days until election day, how can it be that Trump has taken a small lead in Arizona and Georgia – two swing states he lost to Biden in 2020? How can he be narrowly leading Harris in the swing state of North Carolina? How can he now be essentially tied with her in the other key swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin? More gene...