Why Were The Polls So Wildly Off In Tuesday's Elections?
This is a key question that nobody's asking. The Real Clear Politics average for the New Jersey governor's race had Sherrill ahead by 2.7%, and many commentators had this within the margin of error. She won by 56.3% to Ciattarelli's 43.2%, a 13.1% margin. The RCP average for the Virginia governor's race had Spanberger ahead by 8.5%. She won by 57.2% to Earle Sears's 43.6%, a 13.5% margin. I asked Chrome AI mode, "What is considered an accurate poll election prediction?" It answered, An accurate poll election prediction is one where the actual election outcome falls within the poll's stated margin of error and confidence interval. However, polls often understate the full range of potential error, meaning the reported margin of error may need to be wider in practice to be truly accurate. The RCP poll averages don't have a stated margin of error, because they are just a composite of individual polls with differing margins of error. ...