The Race Hasn't Changed
I've pointed out recently that, up to Kamala's replacing Joe on the ticket, the polls had been unchanged since last fall, with Trump's lead in the Real Clear Politics aggregate national vote fluctuating from about 0.5 point to 3 points, depending on the most recent poll they ran through their model. Trump's felony conviction in New York, for example, changed nothing. Joe's very public brain freezes in June changed nothing. His loss in the June 27 debate, the clearest and most indisputable loss in any presidential debate, ever, changed nothing. The assassination attempt on Trump on July 13 changed nothing. All of a sudden, the emergence of Kamala as the new Democrat turned everything upside down, or at least this is the story. I've been deeply suspicious of the unchanging polls all year, especially when the consensus simply acknowledges that the poll aggregtes underestimated Trump's vote totals in both 2016 and 2020, but for some reason, nobody seems to w...