Is Iran In A Constitutional Crisis?

One of the points Tom Nash made in the presentation I embedded in yesterday's post was that the Supreme Leader is essential to maintaining a cohesive regime. Israel took him out on February 28, and so far, he hasn't been replaced.

Iran is reportedly delaying naming a successor to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader killed over the weekend in U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, for security concerns as Israel has asserted that it will target whoever is instated, while President Donald Trump has doubled down on wanting to influence the selection.

The New York Times reported, citing two unnamed Iranian officials, that while Khamenei’s second-eldest son, 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, has emerged as the strongest contender to take Tehran’s top job, no one has been named out of fear that they will be targeted.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz posted on social media on Wednesday that any leader appointed by Iran to succeed Ali Khamenei would be “an unequivocal target for elimination,” adding that “it does not matter what his name is or the place where he hides.”

This story suggests that another reason Mojtaba Khamenei hasn't been designated is that he's somehow indisposed or unavailable:

Mojtaba Khamenei — the expected next supreme leader — was reportedly wounded in an Israeli air strike.

. . . It’s not clear if Mojtaba, 56, was with his father in the Ayatollah’s compound that was decimated by airstrikes, or if he was targeted in a separate attack on the regime.

The details and extent of his injuries are also not clear.

He has likely gone into hiding as both the US and Israel continue to rain missiles on the Islamic Republic.

The practical result is that the Iranian regime is no longer speaking with one voice:

ran’s Assembly of Experts is set to hold an emergency session on Thursday to formally announce Mojtaba Khamenei, a son of the late Supreme Leader, as the next leader, despite opposition from some members who warn against “hereditary leadership,” Iran International has learned.

But this is the meeting that has apparently been delayed, perhaps indefinitely. The link continues,

Two sources from the offices of Assembly of Experts representatives told Iran International that at least eight members will not attend the emergency session on Thursday in protest at what they described as “heavy pressure” from the Revolutionary Guards to impose Mojtaba Khamenei.

. . . Sources told Iran International that a group of opponents contacted the Assembly’s chairman and members of its leadership board on Wednesday, warning that declaring Mojtaba Khamenei leader could raise public concerns about the leadership becoming hereditary and the Islamic Republic resembling a monarchy.

. . . Another member argued that Mojtaba Khamenei “does not have an established, public clerical and jurisprudential standing,” and for that reason his selection as the state's Supreme Jurist (Vali-ye Faqih) would lack religious legitimacy, the sources added.

. . . Sources said the Guards argue that given the country’s “special conditions” and ongoing security situation, the new leader must be announced as quickly as possible and that any delay could worsen instability and deepen a decision-making vacuum at the top of the system.

The leadership rift deepened within the next few days:

Overnight last night [March 6], Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian issued a statement apologizing for attacks against neighboring countries and claiming that some attacks were carried out independently by regional commanders without directive due to loss of communication.

President Pezeshkian further stating the Temporary Leadership Council in Iran had ordered a halt to attacks on other countries unless their territory is used to attack Iran.

Within hours the remaining elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) rebuked the statement by President Pezeshkian saying the IRGC would continue attacking any/all gulf states as needed. This was followed by the Iranian clergy saying their president was “weak, unprofessional and totally unacceptable.”

Obviously the political, military and religious elements within Iran are not on the same page.

So notwitwtanding the state of Mojtaba Khamenei's health, another issue appears to be that he's the candidate of the Revolutionary Guards, who nevertheless appear not to be in a position to name him formally as Supreme Leader. But even if he were to be named -- which so far seems under serious question -- he would be eliminated within a short time after his naming.

We can safely surmise that Iranian communications and codes have been thoroughly compromisesd, and any communications between any Supreme Leader and any other government functions would simply serve to pinpoint his location. From the links above, assuming Mojtaba is in good health, he nbevertheless can't commuicate for fear of prompting an Israeli bunkerbuster attack. The practical result is that, despite efforts to reconstitute a government, the Iranian command structure continues to be paralyzed.

This all flies in the face of conventional wisdom. I asked the oracle, "Have there been predictions that Iran's political alignment would remain cohesive despite US and Israeli attacks?" It answered,

Experts and intelligence assessments as of March 2026 indicate that Iran’s political alignment and regime structure are likely to endure despite significant U.S. and Israeli military strikes. While these attacks have decapitated top leadership—including the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on March 2—the state's foundational institutions were specifically designed to survive such losses.

. . . Analysts from the Brookings Institution suggest that deeply embedded networks like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and the Assembly of Experts provide a power structure that remains advantaged over any internal challengers.

. . . Academic experts, such as Robert Pape of the University of Chicago, warn that air campaigns historically fail to unseat regimes or change their fundamental political alignment, often leading instead to prolonged escalation.

. . . According to a U.S. National Intelligence Council report, the regime is expected to follow established constitutional protocols to name a successor, with veteran politician Ali Larijani already taking a leading role in a functional interim government.

So there we are. All the right people are telling us that the Iranian regime will just keep on keepin' on. You know what? My money is still on Trump.