In The Shadow Of Mt Hollywood

A new Fox poll is out, which this analysis sums up : If the new Fox News poll is accurate, it should be sending off warning bells to Joe Biden because there are multiple elements that indicate big trouble for him. The first is that former President Donald Trump has extended his lead over Biden in their survey. He's now up by five points in the head-to-head numbers, as well as five points ahead of Biden even when adding in the other party candidates. According to Interactive Polls this is the largest lead ever for Trump in Fox polling. Nobody seems to have pointed this out, but the answer is in two words: Fani Willis. Trump's slow but steady rise in the polls is continuing, but the big thing that's been driving it since last fall has been the lawfare cases against him, which are continuing to backfire. I've noted here that Alan Dershowitz, one of the people who invented the Chicago Seven strategy for turning trials into street theater, has recognized that thi...

One feature of all the Trump criminal trials so far has been that as the date for each approaches, new and often lurid details surface that throw their credibility into doubt. This certainly happened in Fulton County, and it looks like something similar may occur in New York as well. I think this is an inevitable result of the slapdash nature of all the cases, thrown together for indictments in the middle of 2023 in hopes of securing convictions in one or more of them, first by the 2024 primary season, and then by the November election. So far, this isn't working out as planned. We probably have some vague recollection of Michael Avenatti , pictured with his onetime client, the porn actress Stormy Daniels, above: Michael John Avenatti (born February 16, 1971) is an American former attorney and convicted felon, currently incarcerated in federal prison at FCI Terminal Island. He is best known for his legal representation of adult film actress Stormy Daniels in lawsuits against ...

I've made a couple of recent posts on Alan Dershowitz's red line from a YouTube broadcast last week : If you stop supplying ammunition and arms to Israel and deny them the right to defend themselves, you have crossed my red line. I hope that doesn't happen. I now have a more open mind than I ever thought I would have about whom I will vote for in this election. The Democratic Party cannot take me, the people who listen to me, the people who vote the way I do, they can't take us for granted, sorry. As of yesterday, there was a sorta-kinda answer from a "senior defense official" via Breitbart: Regarding the question about security assistance, you know, security assistance, which is a longstanding feature of the U.S. Israel relationship and the U.S. Commitment Israel security, it has flowed more rapidly than ever since the attacks of October 7th. And the secretary ensures — said very clearly that we will continue to stand up for Israel’s right to d...

There's a consensus that the Biden administration is shfting its policy away from supporting Israel. Via Politico on Kamala's threats of "consequences" over the weekend : [I]n the interview this weekend, she didn’t dismiss a possible backlash as the administration continues to warn Israel against a major invasion of Rafah. The West Wing has supported Harris’ willingness to nudge out slightly ahead of Biden, who spent decades as one of the Senate’s foremost supporters of Israel and has been loath to appear like he is turning his back on the country even amid his growing disdain for its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu. Indeed, two administration officials not authorized to speak publicly about internal discussions said Harris’ remarks have created more space for Biden to slowly — and privately — offer his own rebukes of Netanyahu and his conduct of the war. But the prevailing stance inside the administration is that Biden and Harris are reading from the s...

I posted last week on what seemed to be an unaccustomed flurry of activity on The President's Public Schedule following the State of the Union address. But this past weekend he seems to have reverted to his normal pattern of leaving for Delaware on Friday and returning Sunday night or Monday morning. I've expressed my doubts that he could keep the earlier schedule up for long. Beyond that, he seems to have begun to rely on Vice President Harris as a surrogate. As of this morning in The Washington Post , As the campaign for the White House intensifies, Harris has been thrust to the forefront of President Biden’s efforts to hang on to young and minority voters — groups that are vital to his reelection but that may be losing enthusiasm for his candidacy. This month, Harris has championed a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants in Nevada, discussed marijuana legalization in the White House with rapper Fat Joe, and called for a cease-fire in Gaza at a com...

Over the past couple of days, I've seen two references to a potential problem for Trump, even if he continues to do well in the polls, if enough Republicans resign from the House to give the majority to the Democrats . Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-WI) will retire from the House months before his term ends next year, setting up a scenario where House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) could have a one-seat majority. . . . Gallagher's departure will bring a math problem for Johnson as the chamber seeks to fill a slew of other vacancies announced over the last few months. As of next week, there are four empty seats vacated by Reps. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), Bill Johnson (R-OH), Brian Higgins (D-NY), and Ken Buck (R-CO), whose last day in office was Friday. With Gallagher's absence, that brings the Republicans' majority to 217-213 as of April 19. That will be further narrowed for Republicans after the special election for Higgins, which is expected to favor Democrats, bringing th...

Following up on yesterday's post, I've found a few more data points that make me think Joe is actually driving key parts of foreign and military policy himself, although it's in the context of Robert Gates's assessment, "I think he has been wrong on nearly every major foreign policy and national security issue over the past four decades.” On Ukraine, Seymour Hersh remarks on Substack , President Biden’s foreign policy problems in the Middle East and Ukraine are daunting, especially in an election year, but the war between Russia and Ukraine could be nearing a military endgame, and not via negotiations. Vladimir Putin’s military is more entrenched inside Ukraine than ever, and the undermanned and under-equipped Ukraine military is facing a stalemate at best and the permanent loss of four oblasts. In essence, it is a defeat. . . . Even amid a difficult and costly war that he initiated, Putin remains firmly in control of Russia, despite a series of Wes...