California's Problem

California's problem is simple: it has at this point the strictest COVID measures in the US, but this has done absolutely nothing to control the spread of the disease. Gov Newsom and Mayor Garcetti have been making noises about even stricter lockdowns after the holidays, but barbershops, hair salons, gyms, bars, and restaurants have been closed, social gatherings forbidden, with 10 PM curfews in place, since roughly Thanksgiving. Newsom assured us at that time that these measures would "flatten the curve" but the curve just contnues to shoot upward.

This means that about the only thing the state and counties can do more is to close all "non-essential" retail, which is already at a 25% limit. LA County has allowed churches to worship on its initiative, but it could revoke this at any time, subject to court action. Closing "non essential" retail would put California with the UK's Tier 4, the strictest i n the world. I assume this would have exactly the same effect it's had in the UK, viz, none.

Meanshile, the state health department keeps issuing perky messages -- "IT'S TIME TO STOP THE CORONAVIRUS, CALIFORNIA. Can we defeat El Covid?" But all it suggests is wear your mask, maintain social distance, don't visit grandma. The problem is that everyone's been doing this since last spring,

Before Christmas, Politico took notice. "Locked-down California runs out of reasons for surprising surge."

The turnabout has confounded leaders and health experts. They can point to any number of reasons that contributed to California's surge over the past several weeks. But it is hard to pinpoint one single factor — and equally hard to find a silver bullet.

It couldn't come at a worse time, given that the Christmas and New Year's holidays have arrived, and officials fear that residents are even more likely to travel and congregate than during the Thanksgiving period that propelled the current trends.

But Poliico has the answer: it's the plebs's fault!

The state hasn't employed strict enforcement and has relied on its regulatory agencies to cite the worst-offending establishments in spot cases. But it has no real hammer against people gathering or engaging in everyday social activities, and many local law enforcement agencies have made a point of declaring they will not become the stay-at-home police.

. . . In the meantime, the state is running out of levers to control the spread, leaving public health officers little choice but to implore residents to adhere to the rules.

Gov. Gavin Newsom has said all along that the state has to rely on social pressure to keep people apart. The state, with help from private donors, has spent tens of millions of dollars on billboards and advertisements urging responsible behavior.

Well, if your sports team has a bad season, you fire the coach. If the war isn't going well, you fire the generals. This is the philosophy behind the Recall Newsom movement, but it may or may not work. It seem to me that what really needs to happen is for the politicians and media to ask what's wrong with the statistics and what's wrong with the strategy -- and maybe the solution to the problem is to let the problem disappear.