Why Is The Reconciliation Package A Cliffhanger?

My mother, who had a career in government after starting with the Republican National Committee, told me at a fairly early age that there are, or at least should be, no surprises at the policy level. (She fancied herself a lizard person.) Legislative leaders have the votes wrapped up well before actual votes take place. That's why parties have whips. Of course, she started her career in Washington when Lyndon Johnson was president, so this may have affected her outlook.

So I'm amazed at the story that's been developing over Democrat disorder over the $3.5 trillion reconciliation package, said to be the centerpiece of Biden's program, except that I'm increasingly convinced that Speaker Pelosi is the one who's running things. If there are questions about Biden's competence, I think they apply as well to Pelosi, who's actually giving the orders. As of this morning,

President Biden's two major economic agenda items hang in the balance this week as Democrats continue "intense discussions" on their $3.5 trillion spending plan and some Republicans are warning that their support for the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill could evaporate after Democrats "linked" it with reconciliation.

"It's gotten completely off the rails," Maryland Republican Gov. Larry Hogan told Fox News. . . . "We've worked for quite some time to negotiate a bipartisan infrastructure bill, which did not include any of this additional spending. We've got the president to commit to it. We've got the Senate to pass it," Hogan said. "And then the House is now saying if we can't jam through our $3 and a half trillion of other stuff that we took out of this compromise bill, that they're not going to do it."

Last week, President Biden was supposed to have brought the two senate Democrat holdouts, Sens Manchin and Sinema, on board. But Manchin didn't change his public position, and over the weekend, it came out that Sinema not only didn't come around, but she gave Biden an ultimatum. (Can you imagine LBJ getting an ultimatum?)

Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) delivered a tough message to President Biden at a private meeting Wednesday, Playbook reports: If the House delays its scheduled Sept. 27 vote on the bipartisan infrastructure plan — or if the vote fails — she won’t be backing a reconciliation bill.

“Progressives think if they band together and threaten to kill the infrastructure bill, it will convince moderate members to go along with the larger reconciliation package. But multiple sources — including a senior Democratic aide and several in the centrist camp — tell us the left is misreading their colleagues.”

At this stage, it looks less and less likely that either bill will be passed this fall. The status of any putative agreement between Pelosi and moderate House Democrats to vote on the smaller infrastucture bill separately from the $3.5 trillion package on September 27 seems increasingly unclear, given the stated intent of House progressives to defeat the smaller bill if it isn't linked to the big one.

Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal told Politico that the majority of her coalition, which comprises 96 members, has privately shared it is prepared to thwart the infrastructure bill in protest unless it is a package deal with the Democrat-spearheaded measure.

“Even if there were Republicans that come along” to support the Senate infrastructure in the House, Jayapal said, “we will have more individuals, more Democrats who are going to vote it down without the reconciliation bill.”

In fact, it almost looks as if Sen Manchin is in the position of brokering a solution:

Manchin reportedly told workers at a Procter & Gamble facility in Martinsburg, West Virginia, that he wanted to pause all negotiations on the $3.5 trillion bill until 2022.

. . . Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), the House Majority Whip, said Sunday that Democrats might need to spend more time hashing out the differences between the party’s different wings.

“Sometimes, you have to kind of stop the clock to get to the goal,” he said.

“It may be $3.5 [trillion]. It may be close to that, or it may be closer to something else,” suggested they may change the spending levels for the mammoth legislation.

But I can think of two problems with any delay. First, the talk we're starting to hear from Manchin and Clyburn suggests that a delay would come to allow renegotiation for a lower total in the $3.5 trillion package, which would amount to a defeat for the progressives, and for that matter Pelosi-Biden. Second, a delay into 2022 as Manchin proposes would push the vote closer to the election, already assumed to be bad for Democrats. What assurance can they give that the new negotiation wouldn't last through September-October 2022, the worst possible outcome?

And of course, the need to delay the package would simply illustrate the incompetence of Pelosi in particular, who can't control her own caucus.

I kept thinking over the weekend about the image of Pelosi tearing up her copy of Trump's State of the Union address. You can see in her face her confidence that she's the one in charge. The real problem in 2021 isn't in fact Biden. He takes his orders from Pelosi.