If Epstein Were Murdered In His Cell, Who Would Benefit?

Last week's plea deal for the jail guards who were asleep while Epstein hanged himself in his cell has revived interest in whether he was murdered or a suicide. I've already weighed in, it was suicide. But if it was a hit, it would be a potentially explosive development, a scandal with wide-ranging repercussions. What would be the benefit of a move with such a huge downside risk? More than a few people wouls have to be involved, and the chances they'd all keep quiet would be slim.

So let's say the initiative for such a conspiracy came from someone with so much to lose that the downside if the conspiracy came to light would be less than the downside if some much bigger secret came out -- a secret that only Epstein could know about, and so big that he had to be eliminated to keep it. So who might that person be, and what might the secret be?

The best we know of Epstein's scam from the mid-1990s until his 2008 guilty plea was that he ran a blackmail operation that laundered payments through philanthropic fronts. The best guess we have about his marks, from his known associates and the flight manifests of the Lolita Express, is that they were mostly corporate B-listers and fading celebrities, figures like Les Wexner, Jes Staley, and Kevin Spacey. The philanthropic fronts were things like the Clinton Foundation and projects at Harvard and MIT. The best-known passengers on the Lolita Express were Prince Andrew and Bill Clinton.

Andrew is a royal also-ran with no especially good reputation pre Epstein, while as best we can tell, Clinton associated with Epstein after he'd left office -- but given Monica Lewinsky, who cares if he fooled around with Epstein while he was still president? So it seems to me that neither of the two most powerful and prominent men in Epstein's circle had so much to lose that they'd risk more to put out a hit on the guy.

Donald Trump is said to have consorted with Epstein in the 1990s, but so far, there have been no credible allegatons that he had something to hide that was so egregious that he'd put out a hit -- and after Stormy Daniels, who cares? Even if Trump as president had the wherewithal to set up such a hit through the federal prison system, some number of people would have to be involved, and given the number of deep staters who'd make scandals up to hurt him, any attempt on Trump's part actually to set up a murder would bring whistelblowers out of the woodwork instantly.

Leaving aside the allegations of sex with underage girls that surround Epstein and his circle, the biggest secrets otherwise would be blackmail payments laundered through philanthropic fronts. While this could potentially mean money laundering charges and tax issues, non-profits like the Clinton Foundation, Harvard, and MIT have so far been protected from investigation and are likely to remain so. No need to whack Epstein to keep things quiet on that front.

In addition, secrets have time value. Businessmen retire, politicians leave office, and everyone passes away. Memories fade. The public grows jaded. One more grope? One more affair? And 20 years ago? Epstein's activities appear to have been restricted after his 2008 guilty plea. He could no longer afford to fly the Lolita Express, Ghislaine cashed out, and people were more reluctant to deal with him. By the time of his 2019 death, his juiciest sercrets were likely at least 11 years old and losing value by the day.

This would also apply to the theory that Epstein was some type of spy, either for the Mossad or the CIA. Those secrets have time value, too. And successful spies keep a low profile, which Epstein never did. One of the biggest ways spies get caught is by conspicuous spending. If anything, Epstein was a cheesy con artist. He might have convinced his marks he was a spy, but I don't think he ever was part of a serious intelligence network.

I just don't think there was enough benefit to anyone to have Epstein murdered in his cell, vis-a-vis the downside of having the conspiracy to do this come to light. This doesn't rule out a murder by a freelance lone prisoner who would do it for the sake of his reputation among other prisoners, but the appeal of an Epstein-was-murdered theory is that it involves a conspiracy by powerful people to keep secrets.

I just don't see that. By 2019, Epstein was old business, which is why they were finally able to arrest him.