TheTea Leaves Nobody Is Reading

US coverage of the Ukraine war continues to be inexcusably bad, and this is across the board, from big corporate media including Fox all the way over to smaller independent outlets like Salem Media and Breitbart. Look at this below-the-fold piece at Salem Media's Red State:

Analysts I’ve discussed Russian military activity patterns with note that, until this weekend, their use of force has been remarkably constrained and surgical. They’ve made little attempt to engage the Ukrainian military in a full-force, armored mobile front battle, even though they clearly have the mass and firepower to do so. As of today, they are playing cat and mouse games with the mayors of the cities they’ve surrounded, engaging in combinations of harassing bombardments and offers of refugee corridors. It’s not hard to see that they have orders to absorb some casualties, while bearing in mind that, when the war ends, their country will have to rebuild everything they blow up. Forget about the so-called Paper Tiger narrative. The numbers just don’t add up this way. This is a lion toying with its prey, because the leader of the pride has told it not to eat yet.

This prose is a reader's equivalent of stepping on a blob of used bubblegum and trying to scrape it off your shoe without having to bend over. Beyond that, I think that as an analysis of the situation, it gets everything wrong, at least insofar as you can figure out what he's saying.

Exhibit A is the short video link above. There's no sound, but none is needed. It starts off with an increasingly common scene: Ukrainian farmers towing armored vehicles away with tractors. Last week, there was an announcement from the Ukrainian government:

"Have you captured a Russian tank or armored personnel carrier and are worried about how to declare it? Keep calm and continue to defend the Motherland!" a statement from the Ukrainian National Agency on Corruption Prevention seen by Interfax-Ukraine said.

"There is no need to declare the captured Russian tanks and other equipment, because the cost of this ... does not exceed 100 living wages," or 248,100 Ukrainian hryvnia, the agency said, according to Interfax-Ukraine. The sum equates to about $8,300.

On the agency's website, a document in Ukrainian dated Monday said the seizure of tanks or equipment would be considered a "manifestation of the unity and cohesion of the Ukrainian people in the fight against invaders" and would not be taxable.

When I first saw it, I thought it was a delicious piece of screw-you irony in the face of likely overwhelming defeat, but it turns out that they weren't joking, and doggone if Ukrainians didn't take it as a joke. They're driving their tractors over to the battlefield and towing the Russian armored vehicles away. I assume there's enough to salvage in an armored car to fix a tractor, and when they're done with that, they'll get a good deal on the scrap metal.

But the scenes go beyond farmers towing tractors away. Other Ukrainian civilians are hopping onto abandoned tanks and taking them for joyrides:

Now, my military experience extends to less than a year in Army ROTC before they threw me out as, shall we say, not officer material. The courses I had were worthless anyhow. But let's apply some common sense to these scenes. That tank is, according to the caption, a Russian T-80, as best I can gather a gas turbine driven main battle tank roughly equivalent to the US Abrams. That the Ukrainians could take it for a joyride says it didn't run out of gas. Apparently it was just left out on the battlefield undamaged, gas in the tank, radios and other electronic gear with codes intact.

I simply can't imagine US troops doing anything like this; at minimum, if they had to abandon it, they'd try to blow the thing up. As far as anyone can tell, the Russians just skedaddled. But also, if Ukrainian civilians encountered a tank in those circumstances, it would indicate the fighting around it is well over, and the Russians haven't come back for it. Indeed, I would assume Ukrainian intelligence has finished whatever it needed to collect from the tank as well and no longer needs it. So hey, let's party! But these scenes aren't unique.

As far as anyone can tell, this is happening in multiple places, and it's an indication that the Ukrainians aren't just slowing the Russians down, they're beating them back. Common sense says there have been battlefields where Russians occupied territory that they no longer occupy, they've left perfecly good equipment in place during a retreat, and they've been gone long enough for civilian scavengers to move in. Lion toying with its prey indeeed. For Salem Media to imply Putin is telling them to do this is absurd.

I think the UK press is more on the ball. From this morning's Daily Mail,

US intelligence believes Russia has committed 95 per cent of the invasion force it had assembled on Ukraine's border to the fight, meaning significant reinforcements to push its attacks forward are unlikely to come soon - and could simply run into many of the same logistical problems that plagued the early assault.

That has prompted some - including UK general Admiral Sir Tony Radakin - to predict that Russia could actually lose the war. Asked by the BBC on Sunday whether victory for Putin's men was 'inevitable', as many had predicted before the fighting started, he responded: 'No.'

This isn't what we're hearing from the retired US general talking heads. As I said yesterday, I don't think losing is the Ukrainian strategy.