COVID Fatigue

My wife and I throughout our marriage gave up wine for Lent, at least up until 2020, when along with a considerable slice of the world population, we found that wine was essential therapy for lockdowns, social distancing, masks, and the rest of the COVID madness. The other day we raised the question of whether we were ready to go back to giving it up for Lent this year and almost instantly decided no way. 2022 looks like not the beginning of the end, but at least maybe the end of the beginning.

What we're seeing is widely divergent policies worldwide on how to end the crisis, especially in the face of a general acknowledgement by all but the usual suspects that lockdowns, masks, social distancing, and even vaccine mandates have been either ineffective or counterproductive in combating the pandemic. An essay by Michael Bang Petersen, an adviser to the Danish government in its decision to end all COVID restrictions, makes an important point:

Our research has shown that public trust has taken a hit in many countries, including Denmark. As fatigue, personal costs and miscommunications have accumulated, the public has become wary. Until recently, the people losing the most trust have been those who felt that their governments’ responses were too heavy-handed. However, according to our data, the Omicron wave has also chipped away at the trust of those who have been supportive of their government’s approach up until now. Lifting restrictions while cases are soaring can seem like betrayal after two years of seeking to “flatten the curve.”

The key ingredients of an effective pandemic response — communication, trust and a shared sense of threat — are slowly dwindling. This can lead to social strife and will make it harder for leaders to steer their populations out of the crisis.

For two years people have debated the value of masks, vaccine passports and more, to the point that they are no longer opinions but identities. And when opinions become identities, they warp our understanding and make it harder to change one’s mind as the situation changes. The truth is that we are all biased. For example, research shows that in the United States, Republicans tend to overrate the risks of getting vaccinated, and Democrats tend to overrate the risks from the disease.

. . . Because Covid-19 vaccines are effective in preventing severe disease from the virus but less effective in preventing infections, the continued spread of the coronavirus in highly vaccinated populations will become a Rorschach test: Everyone will see something different. People who remain worried about getting Covid-19 will see high cases during surges, which will justify their concerns and strengthen their own observance of mask-wearing and distancing. Calls for removing restrictions will seem dangerous. People who are less vulnerable to infection will focus on the lessened severity and do the opposite. They may view calls to keep restrictions in place as unnecessary and infringing on their freedoms.

For people who have been highly vigilant about Covid-19, the end of the pandemic could end up feeling like defeat. At some point, it will be time to lift restrictions and lower the guards. The people they’ve been debating about masks or whether the crisis is improving will then be right. It won’t be because this position was always correct, but because the circumstances have changed.

That’s why strong leadership is so critical for ending the pandemic. As the need for restrictions lessens, it’s up to public health and political leaders to explain why restrictions are being lifted, just as they had to explain why they were being imposed in the first place. Authorities must tell the public why they are placing more responsibility on individuals and, ideally, address the concerns of those who may not be ready, as well as those who remain at higher risk, like the immune compromised.

Dr Petersen is very astutely sending the message that it's time for the public health authorities to declare victory and get out. This won't be an easy process. We're going to need our wine for the foreseeable future.