Trump, Tanks, And Ukraine

Former U.S. President Trump:

First come the tanks, then come the nukes. Get this crazy war ended, now. So easy to do! pic.twitter.com/JLOg166tKF

— Clash Report (@clashreport) January 26, 2023

It looks as though Trump is going to side consistently with the US right in opposing increased aid to Ukraine, and to some extent, I can't disagree with his basic point. As this report at Breitbart summarizes the problem:

President Joe Biden announced Wednesday that the U.S. would be sending 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, but did not explain to the American public what the purpose of the tanks would be, or the broader U.S. goal in the war.

White House communications chief John Kirby later tried to assure reporters (and Russia) that the tanks would not be used for an “offensive” purpose, but clearly the hope is to retake territory by attacking Russian forces.

The story throughout the past year has been incrementalism. Zelensky campaigns for new weapons one step beyond what the West is willing to supply, whether it's old Warsaw Pact Migs, M777s, HIMARS, Bradleys, or whatever else; there's a weeks-long interval of dither; finally Biden decides to deliver what's requested. Zelensky's position seems to be consistent but expressed as diplomatically as he can put it, this sort of incrementalism is just prolonging the war.

Zelensky is operating from his position of national interest, as are many neighboring NATO countries. On the other hand, it's hard to tell what the US big picture is. The Breitbart link continues,

The U.S. foreign policy establishment seems to believe that the Russian military is near collapse, and that Putin may be forced from power. There is little thought given to what might happen to Russia afterwards — or how a Russian collapse would strengthen China.

If the current Ukraine conflict is something like a proxy World War III played out in slo-mo, it's worth noting that in World War II, the Germans and the Japanese both held out for years past the point where they might have been expected to collapse. Current Western policy seems driven by wishful thinking that Putin might die of disease or be ousted, but no thought is given to whether, as is likely, his replacement would be worse. In addition, Zelensky has articulated a completely reasonable war aim for Ukraine -- Russian forces must vacate all internationally recognized Ukrainian territory -- but even if that goal is reached, there's no assurance Russia won't simply reinvade a few years later.

As I pointed out last year, so far, there's been no Casablanca, Yalta, or Potsdam conference equivalent that articulates clear war aims, even though this is a proxy, slo-mo World Wat III that will settle world issues like the disposition of the Russian Empire and its successors. The Russia problem won't go away just like that if Putin is out of the picture, or if Russia simply withdraws from Ukraine. Nukes or no, and let's hope it's no, Russia will likely be solved only by a de facto Western occupation that severely limits military reconstruction and imposes a completely new constitution, a la Germany and Japan after 1945.

Trump is implicitly raising these questions. Biden, meanwhile, has little political capital to expend on articulating a clear set of war aims; he's effectively farmed it out to Zelensky, with Secretaries Austin and Blinken tardily and reluctantly signing on to each new Zelensky initiative, when Zelensky has been able to say with some effect that this is simply prolonging the war.

The most favorable interpretation of Trump's view at this point is that the current military and foreign policy establishment needs to be careful what it wishes for. If the West continues incremental increases in aid to Ukraine without a realistic plan and clear overall objectives, the short-term result, whether it's nukes or just some other form of local conflict, will be destablilizing and to the West's ultimate detriment.

In any case, if Trump's message gains traction, as I think it might given what I see in conservative media, Biden will need to reexamine national priorities and increase Ukraine aid sharply now to be sure the war ends before the 2024 campaign. I'm not sure how long he'll have the political capital to do this, but he'll still have the problem that nobody's thought through what the world will look like when that aim is achieved.