Let's Get Back To Incompetence

I've noted that my developing theory of incomptence is starting to show that a major factor, and a major indicator, is an inability to match the calendar with a realistic understanding of the time it takes to finish tasks. We've been seeing this all autumn in the repeated crises over passing the BIF in the House of Representatives, and as I noted yesterday, there's no indication this is going to stop. As The Hill noted, Speaker Pelosi ordered her committee chairs to finish drafting legistlative text for the BBB by last night so the Rules Committee could mark it up for a vote as early as tomorrow.

Even The Hill has now backed off:

A number of sticking points on the $1.75 trillion package could make it difficult to move speedily. These troublesome issues include locking in how the bill is paid for and whether paid leave and prescription drug negotiations will be added. Senate Democrats also need a decision from the parliamentarian on their latest immigration proposal.

House Democratic leadership is hoping to pass both this week, though a House Rules Committee meeting expected on Monday, which would have allowed for floor votes as soon as Tuesday, has been delayed as negotiations continued through the weekend.

But this also ignores the problem for the Senate:

Senate Democrats have been skeptical that they’ll be able to move the spending deal at lightning speed.

The Senate rules for the arcane budget process, known as reconciliation, that Democrats are using to pass the package without GOP support requires an intense floor marathon. And Democratic senators are signaling that they expect a lengthy process to finish the bill.

“That drafting has to see the light of day for some time because there’s going to be challenges, and you have to get a score, and the scoring of it is going to be challenging,” said Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.). “It’s going to take some time.”

Sen. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) said he hoped the Senate would be able to pass the social spending package before they leave for a weeklong Thanksgiving break, which is expected to start on Nov. 22.

But Sen Kaine neglects to note that there are only nine legislative days left before the Thanksgiving recess, not all of them full days. But this leaves aside the White House's inability to lead the effort to secure passage. The Politico article I linked yesterday is still the best discussion of the White House's role in last week's crisis:

And in a repeat of September's struggles, the White House again did not mount an aggressive lobbying effort to get progressives to provide the votes for the infrastructure package. Despite multiple Cabinet members making calls or virtually meeting with members, none appeared to clearly push for an infrastructure vote on Thursday. Instead Biden's Cabinet warned Democrats against trying to cram too much into the separate social spending package.

. . . The fraught dynamics between the White House and House Democrats in particular have become more pronounced in the past month. Some Democrats say that’s in part due to Klain’s friendly relationship with progressives, which has given the party's liberal wing a powerful White House ally — unlike in prior Democratic administrations.

Klain, multiple sources say, primarily talks to progressive lawmakers and is rarely if ever the person House leadership or centrist Democrats turn to in the White House.

His coziness with the left has frustrated leaders and moderate Democrats who view it, at times, as an impediment to getting Biden’s agenda passed, though it has won him praise from progressives who believe passing as many of their priorities as possible would be a boon to Democrats.

But this also leaves aside the whole question of the debt ceiling, which must be extended by mid-December. Treasury Secretary Yellen has reversed her opinon on using reconciliation to pass it with only Democrat votes, but that in turn requires Sen Schumer to make realistic plans.

In a recent interview with The Washington Post, Yellen reiterated that tackling the debt ceiling should “absolutely” be done on a bipartisan basis, as it has in the past. But if a current standoff between Republicans and Democrats over the debt ceiling doesn’t let up, Yellen said Democrats may have to handle the problem themselves.

. . . Last month, Congress passed legislation, with a bipartisan vote in the upper chamber, to temporarily raise the debt ceiling into December, after Yellen warned lawmakers had until Oct. 18 before the U.S. was expected to default on its debt.

But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) warned shortly after that Republicans would not work with Democrats to act on the debt ceiling again, putting pressure on Democrats to address the legislation on their own to avert a default in the weeks ahead.

I'm starting to question whether there's time to get any of this done, especially considering the poor leadership on the Democrat side.